Dominating the Discourse: Two State Solution Leaps to Top of Int'l Agendas

Dominating the Discourse: The Two State Solution Leaps to the Top of International Agendas

Over the past month, a surge in discourse surrounding the two-state solution among Israelis, Palestinians, and the international community emerged as leaders and the public continue to demand a clear strategic vision for the “day after the war in Gaza. Developments in the international arena are focused increasingly on bringing about a ceasefire that includes the return of Israeli hostages and immediate humanitarian reprieve for millions of Palestinians in Gaza, linking this to a long-term solution that ensures security and dignity for both peoples. Amid those efforts, the two-state solution has again emerged in international and regional consensus as the only viable path forward.

This month’s Two State Index will examine:

- Push Towards ‘The Day After’ and Pressure for a Political End-Game: Linking a Hostage Deal, Local Discourse, and Saudi Normalization to a Political Horizon

- Controversial Conference Brings Far-Right Plan for Re-settlement of Gaza Modeled on the West Bank Into Focus: Issue of Gaza re-settlement could be harnessed to pressure government to make concessions in northern West Bank

- Interim Ruling at the ICJ Gives Both Israel, Palestinians Claim of Victory: Israel Gets a ‘Yellow Card’ at World Court

As a result of parameter changes analyzed below, the Two-State Index increased by 1.3%, rising from 5.12 to 5.18.

The Push Towards ‘The Day After’ and Pressure for a Political End-Game

The war between Israel and Hamas surpassed grim new milestones in January including over 26,000 dead in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, while operations in Gaza have claimed the lives of 226 Israeli soldiers (560 counting fatalities on October 7^th), including 21 soldiers killed in the deadliest day of fighting for Israel since the war began. In Gaza, an estimated 1.7 million displaced Palestinians are facing dire humanitarian conditions including reported hunger and an outbreak of communicable diseases, according to the UN.

Though Israel has signaled its intention to wind down the scope of its operations in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also said to have indicated that the war is likely to continue beyond 2024. As the cost of a military campaign without any accompanying political track mounts, however – in terms of casualties, societal psychological impact, and the economy –decisionmakers are coming under pressure to get to ‘the day after’ and clarify a political way forward towards ending not just the war, but the broader conflict. The TSI examines these main axes of pressure:

1. Bottom-Up Pressure Led by Hostage Families for the Immediate Release of Captives

Grassroots pressure continues to intensify amid slow progress to reach a new ceasefire deal that would see the release of 136 Israelis still held captive by Hamas. Rallying around the cries of hostage families for Israel to prioritize the release of captives over military gains in Gaza, Israelis repeatedly protested last month in front of the Prime Minister’s residence in Jerusalem and outside his private home in Caesarea. Marches organized by associations of women’s groups in Israel highlighted serious fears for female hostages heightened by testimony of returned Israeli hostages, and for all captives still held in Gaza nearly 120 days after the October 7 attacks.

“The Hostage and Missing Families Forum has been crucial in putting the release of the hostages on the political agenda. The families have been applying a lot of international pressure but have been most influential internally. As a result of their efforts, the position of the government that only military pressure can bring about the release of the hostages is slowly eroding. The families have stopped believing in this approach and have become more confrontational with the government, arguing that a political deal is necessary,” says JStreet Israel Director Nadav Tamir, who is also currently volunteering with The Hostage and Missing Families Forum.

“The hostage situation has evolved into an issue that will have far-reaching political implications after the war ends. If a deal is reached, Netanyahu can use the hostage issue to justify some of the concessions necessary for opening a political horizon. It’s a face-saving formula for Netanyahu whose decision-making is more about his political and legal survival than anything. He is trying to speak to both bases from both sides of his mouth,” says Tamir.

The release of Israeli hostages has been at the crux of efforts to secure a comprehensive deal that could lead to an end to hostilities and eventual diplomatic process, but the sides remain at an impasse over the terms of a ceasefire agreement – with the fundamental disagreement focused on whether this would be a permanent end to the war or temporary pause in the fighting.

2. In the Local Arena – Pressure to Define What Comes Next

As the war in Gaza continues into a fifth month, both Israeli and Palestinian discourse has become increasingly preoccupied with the question of ‘the day after’. The absence of any clear strategic direction from the Netanyahu government has led Israeli pundits and the public to question whether Israel’s objective to eliminate Hamas is (a) feasible, and (b) whether it will succeed to bring long-term security to Israeli citizens if not accompanied by a political solution to the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In the Palestinian arena, top officials announced a comprehensive package of reforms aimed at revitalizing the Palestinian Authority and enabling it to return to governance in Gaza following the Israel-Hamas war. The reforms include the appointment of new regional governors, changes to the recruitment of security forces, media liberalization, and a restructuring of the healthcare system.

Some Palestinian analysts appear skeptical of the reform packaged announced, however: “The reforms package announced by Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh are apparently meant to address the demands of Western countries who asked for these reforms, not anything else. The announcement lacks the basics of due process, like a dialogue with relevant stakeholders – including civil society – and the outlining of a clear vision and plan,” says Palestinian writer Jihad Harb.

“There is a need for multi-lateral sectarian reform: one for reforming the political system, one for reforming the judiciary, one for reforming the security system, one for reforming the financial system. But nothing of that nature was outlined in Shtayyeh’s statement.”

Hamas’ political wing, meanwhile, has sought to carve out a role for itself within the PLO’s vision of a post-war governance structure as Palestinian officials and analysts argue that Israel's goal to completely collapse the group is unrealistic.

In the Israeli arena, Netanyahu repeatedly stated his opposition to the two-state solution, positioning himself as the only Israeli leader capable of resisting US pressure to establish a future Palestinian state. But Netanyahu's positions may say more about his political base and coalition than about mainstream Israeli public opinion. A poll commissioned by the Geneva Initiative and conducted by the Midgam Institute this month found that a majority of Israelis (51.3%) would actually support a comprehensive deal to end the war that would include the release of the hostages, normalization with Saudi Arabia, and the establishment of a non-militarized Palestinian state in the future.

JStreet Israel Director Nadav Tamir says that the continued mobilization of public support for a broader political deal hinged on the release of the hostages is crucial, and will give Netanyahu a stronger political backing to agree to the concessions that will undoubtedly come as part of such an agreement – especially as counterpressure from the far-right begins to emerge. Increasingly, right-wing protesters including some families of hostages have sought to disrupt the entry of humanitarian supplies into Gaza, arguing that aid should not be allowed to enter until the hostages are released.

Former IDF chiefs Gadi Eisenkot and Benny Gantz – both of whom also sit on the Israeli war cabinet – are among a growing list of notable public figures reportedly splitting from Netanyahu’s approach in favor of agreeing to a long-term ceasefire in order to bring about the release of remaining captives. Opposition leader Yair Lapid, meanwhile, has indicated that he would offer political backing to Netanyahu in support of a deal that prioritizes the release of the hostages.

The prominence of the two-state solution in current discourse – both for and against – reflects a common understanding that the war must end with a new political approach that corrects the failures of Israel’s previous conflict management policies. A lack of consensus over the contours of such a solution, however, has left the Israeli public frustrated in its leadership and unsure about the future and their long-term security.

3. Mounting US & International Diplomatic Pressure

The international community continues to insist that a two-state solution is the only viable way forward from current hostilities, with the EU, UK, Germany, Canada, and others expressing disappointment in Netanyahu’s rejection of a path towards Palestinian sovereignty. The US has spearheaded calls for Israel to accept a post-war vision for Palestinian leadership that includes self-governance within a non-militarized state, but disagreements between President Joe Biden’s administration and Netanyahu on the matter have increasingly spilled into public view, as the Israeli government insists on maintaining long-term military control of the Gaza Strip, operating as it does in the West Bank.

To avoid a status-quo reality and a permanent military occupation of Gaza, the US has pushed a potential Israel-Saudi normalization deal as the golden carrot that could still convince Israel to get on board with opening a path towards an eventual two-state solution. Top US and Saudi diplomats including White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan indicated publicly last month that Washington and Riyadh are fully aligned on linking normalization to the opening of a political horizon between Israel and the Palestinians.

Palestinian analysts also see efforts to engage Saudi Arabia in a regional diplomatic process as giving credibility to US efforts to end the war. “We lost trust in the American way of managing the conflict, and now we want to turn this tragedy into an opportunity and end this conflict once and for all, by establishing the State of Palestine,” says Palestinian minister Ahmad Majdalani. “The Americans and Saudi Arabia are offering a pathway to an independent Palestinian state, but we must insist on having a clear timetable in this process.”

“Engaging Saudi Arabia could be a game-changer in efforts to end the war and initiate a new peace process. Saudi Arabia’s involvement would attract the three parties – Israel, the Palestinians and the US – to look seriously at potential compromises,” says Palestinian analyst Mohammed Younis. “The question is whether Israel, with its current far-right government, will seize this opportunity and make the necessary compromises or whether it will be loyal to its ideology preferring settlement expansion over the promise of regional peace.”

Together, these axes of pressure raise the TSI’s Israeli Public Discourse and Palestinian Public Discourse parameters from 5 to 6/10. The International Public Opinion parameter increases from 8 to 9/10. Israeli Public Opinion rises one point from 3 to 4/10, while the Palestinian Public Opinion rises from 2 to 3/10.

Controversial Conference Brings Far-Right Plan for Re-settlement of Gaza Modeled on the West Bank Into Focus

A controversial Israeli right-wing conference calling for the re-settlement of the Gaza Strip and the mass displacement of Gaza’s Palestinian population highlighted a concerning embrace of extreme ideology among members of Israel’s government, deepened concerns over Israel’s plans for the aftermath of the war and foreshadowed potential implications on the ground in both Gaza and the West Bank.

The Jerusalem gathering, held under the banner "Victory of Israel Conference: Settlement Brings Security", was not organized by the Israeli government officially, but was attended by 11 ministers and 15 coalition lawmakers. Several of the government officials who addressed the event, including far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, repeated previous calls for encouraging the “voluntary” emigration of Palestinians from Gaza, as well as for re-establishing settlements in the Strip. Media coverage of attendees dancing and celebrating jubilantly went viral following the event.

“Even as soldiers fight with their lives in Gaza, pro-settlement activists celebrate and dance as if it is a carnival to promote the idea of re-settlement in Gaza,” says Mossi Raz, a former Meretz party MK and member of the Two State Coalition.

Raz’s criticisms reflect those of other Israeli observers, including opposition leader Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz’s National Unity party, and the families of hostages in Gaza who accused lawmakers of “dancing on the blood of the kidnapped”.

The conference was also condemned by the US, UK, France, and others, reflecting deepening international concerns over Israel’s post-war strategy. The US has been particularly concerned that an Israeli plan to establish a one-kilometer buffer zone could be used to rebuild settlements in Gaza.

Though the Israeli government has sought to assuage those concerns, the historical blueprint for the proliferation of the settlements in the West Bank coupled with the unprecedented political influence currently wielded by the pro-settlement bloc raises concern over whether Netanyahu has the political will and capacity to stymie rogue efforts to re-establish Israeli civilian presence in a militarily-occupied Gaza.

While analysts and observers say it is unlikely that the Israeli government will allow formal re-settlement in the wake of the war, they note that the matter could be used to pressure the government to make concessions in the West Bank.

“I don’t believe that the average Israeli voter, or even the Prime Minister, supports the re-settlement of Gaza. But when the settlement lobby receives a negative response to re-establish settlements in Gaza, they will pressure the government to re-establish evacuated settlements or illegal outposts in northern West Bank, for example Homesh. And I think there is a large majority of support for those steps,” says Raz.

Beyond foreshadowing potential implications and developments on the ground, the conference could be added to the collection of evidence used against Israel at the ICJ, where government ministers’ calls for mass expulsion and population transfer in Gaza featured heavily in the genocide accusation brought against Israel by South Africa. Just two days before the gathering, the ICJ issued an order obliging the Israeli government to prevent and punish such incitement.

Netanyahu did not condemn the conference, but issued a statement reiterating that its agenda does not reflect government policy and that he has no intention of re-settling or re-occupying Gaza after the war.

“The settlements are immoral, a clear violation of international law, and damaging to Israel’s security. The actions of the pro-settlement wing undermine the efforts the IDF in Gaza and, of course, the interests of the State of Israel vis a vis the ICJ, because from the outside it appears that the basis for the war is not only defensive, but to actively promote the transfer of Palestinian residents out of Gaza and take their lands to re-settle,” says Raz.

There are no changes to relevant TSI parameters. The Israeli Prime Minister parameter remains unchanged at 3/10 while the Israeli Government and Israeli Legislature parameters are both unchanged at 2/10.

Interim Ruling at the ICJ Gives Both Israel, Palestinians Claim of Victory

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) last month issued its ruling on provisional measures in a case brought by South Africa against Israel for alleged breaches of the Genocide Convention in its actions in Gaza. While neither Israel nor the Palestinians got exactly what they hoped for – with the court stopping short of ordering an immediate ceasefire, but noting that it had found prima facie jurisdiction to proceed with a full hearing – both sides viewed the court’s ruling as a relative victory.

Notably, the court begins its ruling with an acknowledgement of the October 7 atrocities committed by Hamas and issues a clear demand the immediate and unconditional release of all Israeli hostages held in Gaza. This in and of itself was viewed as a victory for Israel. Beyond this, analysts say the provisional measures ordered can be viewed as the least undesirable outcome for Israel given the current circumstances. The court overwhelmingly rejected imposing an immediate cessation of hostilities in Gaza and allowing Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza, and Israel is likely capable of reporting back to the court next month (as it is obliged to do) that it has fulfilled the provisional measures ordered by the court and its obligations as a signatory of the Genocide Convention without making any significant practical or tactical changes on the ground.

“This is a yellow card for Israel: you are warned, convince us that you have no intention of achieving what is being claimed against you,” writes Israeli expert and GI activist Talia Sasson in a Haaretz op-ed published last month.

Palestinians and their sympathizers viewed the issuing of provisional measures – including that Israel prevent acts of genocide by avoiding killing or causing serious injury to Palestinian civilians, allow humanitarian assistance into the Gaza Strip, and to prevent and punish direct and public incitement to genocide among public figures – as acknowledgement of the catastrophic human and civilian toll of Israel’s war against Hamas. From their perspective, the decision to proceed with a full hearing implies that the court viewed as plausible accusations that Israel has or is committing acts of genocide in its operations in the Gaza Strip.

“The decision is one of the fairest rulings in the history of the court,” says Khattar Abu Diab, a Palestinian political scientist based in Paris. “It implies that the court has found a legal base for examining alleged genocidal practices in the Israeli war in Gaza. The picture of Israel as waging a moral war against Hamas has been shaken by this decision, and it will now face growing pressure to end the war.”

“It seems that if it weren't for the extreme and sweeping statements heard in Israel from government officials, South Africa would not have had the power to file a procedure under the Convention for genocide, but at most for the violation of humanitarian law. Therefore, it must be remembered: a final decision has not yet been made regarding the temporary order on the charge of genocide,” writes Sasson.

The ICJ proceedings could go on for several years, and though the court does not have enforcement powers, the decisions of the court are likely to influence international positions – including potential boycott or sanctions activities. While the practical consequences of the ICJ ruling are likely to be minimal, with the US, Britain, Canada, and Germany having denounced the trial altogether and dismissing the charges of genocide against Israel, the provisional ruling and the ongoing proceedings are a sign of heightened diplomatic pressure on Israel in the international legal arena to wind down its war on Hamas and Gaza and pave the way for a long-term diplomatic solution to the broader conflict.

The TSI’s Lawfare: Legal institutions and proceedings parameter rises from 6 to 7/10 on account of the increased involvement of international legal institutions.

Other:

- Israel, PA agree on mechanism for tax revenues to be transferred through Norway

- West Bank continues to Teeter on Brink of Explosion:

A 79-year-old Israeli woman was killed and more than a dozen others injured in a combined stabbing and car ramming attack in the central city of Ra’anana. The perpetrators, two illegal Palestinian workers from Bani Na'im in the West Bank, were arrested.
Undercover Israeli forces raid Jenin hospital, killing three Palestinians suspected of planning an October 7-style copycat attack. In a surprising move, Israel publicly acknowledged the fact they went undercover dressed as medical staff. Security experts say that this could damage future operations and undermine efforts to condemn similar actions by Palestinian terrorists.
A two-day raid in the Palestinian city of Tulkarem highlights increasing volatility in West Bank strongholds, where Israeli forces and Palestinian militants have clashes with increasing intensity in past months.
According to the UN, 357 Palestinians, of whom 90 were children, have been killed across the West Bank & East Jerusalem since October 7. Five Israelis have been killed in the West Bank over the same period.

- UN Figures Highlight Alarming Scope of Settler Violence Across West Bank:

Figures published by OCHA as of January 22 record a total of 444 Israeli settler attacks against Palestinians since the October 7 attacks, including 45 incidents resulting in Palestinian casualties, 344 incidents of vandalism or damage to Palestinian-owned property, and 55 incidents in which both casualties and property damage were recorded.
This represents an average of four incidents per day. In nearly half of all incidents since October 7, Israeli forces were either accompanying or reported to be supporting the attackers, according to OCHA.

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.

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