Escalation On the Ground and On the Horizon
Dear Friends,

Violence and tensions are intensifying once again, with new flashpoints, expanding circles of friction, and a lack of a political horizon contributing to an increasingly volatile situation that threatens the security, livelihoods, and dignity of both Israelis and Palestinians. In this month’s edition, experts including Dr. Omer Zanany, Director of the Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking Program at Mitvim, analyst Mohammed Daraghmeh, Geneva Initiative Deputy Director Tehila Wenger, analyst Fuad Abu Hamid and Danny Seidemann, founder of Terrestrial Jerusalem, unpack settler violence, the ‘Gazafication’ of the West Bank, East Jerusalem development, and more.

The Two State Index is unchanged this month at 4.94 – the lowest value recorded since the TSI began. Scroll through the headlines below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution.

 

 

August at a Glance:


  • Israeli Gov’t Looks to Expand West Bank Settlement Sprawl as Violence Escalates: Analysts say the situation highlights the increasingly complex challenges the Israeli security apparatus faces in calming flaring tensions

  • As Another Cycle of West Bank Violence Intensifies, the ‘Gazafication’ of the West Bank is Well Underway: Israel and the US counting on Saudi-Israeli normalization to bring some stability to the regional architecture, and the PA looks to Riyadh for gestures to shore up its legitimacy.

  • Israeli Government Approves $850m East Jerusalem Development Plan, Solidifying Grip Over City’s Disputed East: Analysts say the plan may be 'palatable' for promonents of the two-state solution, but is ultimately antithecal to it.

  • Far-Right Ministers Blur the Green Line Between West Bank and Israel Policies: How the Conflict Affects the Israeli-Arab Community

The Two State Index remains unchanged at 4.94 in August - the lowest value recorded since the TSI began.

 

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Israeli Gov’t Looks to Expand West Bank Settlement Sprawl as Violence Escalates

As violence in the West Bank escalates, the Israeli government continues to advance plans to expand the sprawl of Jewish settlements throughout the territory, further deepening points of friction and violence between Palestinians, Israeli settlers, and Israeli security forces. Capitalizing on his role as Finance Minister and his unprecedented authority over settlement affairs within the Defense Ministry, MK Bezalel Smotrich this month floated a plan to allocate $180 million in new funding to expand settlements and legalize some 155 wildcat outposts throughout the West Bank. Though the plan was tabled – at least temporarily – following US pressure, continued escalation is likely to see some or part of it re-visited. 

Meanwhile, settler-perpetrated violence continues to escalate at an alarming rate, feeding into a cycle of terror that is liable to spin out of control. UN agencies recorded 591 settler-related incidents resulting in Palestinian casualties and property damage so far this year – the highest monthly average of incidents since records began. According to OCHA, settler attacks and harassment have displaced nearly 500 Palestinians in the past year and a half – including in four Palestinian shepherding villages abandoned by residents in the past four months alone. 


Analysts say the situation highlights the increasingly complex challenges the Israeli security apparatus faces in calming flaring tensions and violence across the West Bank. As the settler population expands, the IDF is increasingly acting among civilian centers – especially in Area C – with a mandate to protect the settler population. But as settler violence becomes more endemic, this mandate becomes less clear. “Do they protect the settlers or the Palestinians? This dilemma is opening up new points of friction between both the IDF and Palestinians, and between the IDF and settlers,” says Lt.-Col. (ret.) Dr. Omer Zanany, a former IDF intelligence researcher and strategist and current Director of the Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking Program at Mitvim.

“Increasing harassment and violence on the part of Jewish settlers undoubtedly heightens the risk of retaliation by Palestinians. And there is a lack of consensus about how to deal with a wave of attacks perpetrated by Palestinians who aren’t affiliated with known terror organizations. This is well-recognized by both the Palestinian street as well as settlers, who also increasingly recognize that they will not be held accountable for their vigilantism,” Dr. Zanany says.

Indeed, international condemnations and calls for accountability in response to Israeli settler attacks have largely gone unaddressed. Two settlers detained this month in connection to the fatal shooting of a 19-year-old Palestinian during a rampage in the village of Burqa last month – an incident the US branded an act of ‘terrorism’ – had charges against them downgraded this month and no formal indictments issued. 


The broadening points of friction, the despair of Palestinians in the West Bank, and the lack of a political horizon have created a highly combustible situation in which every incident sets of a violent chain reaction that further entrenches the sides in a cycle of that is increasingly difficult to manage.

“The settlement project is Israel’s most dangerous and failed policy. Aside from severely harming the prospect of a two-state solution and diminishing Israel’s international political standing, it is a significant burden on the Israeli economy, military, and broader security apparatus. The damage it inflicts grows daily as it undermines the security of both Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank,” says Dr. Omer Zanany.

There are no changes to TSI settlement parameters this month. The “Settler Violence” parameter remains steady at 8.5/10, while the reverse-scale “Settlement Planning” and “Settlement Construction” parameters remain at 1.5/10, reflecting the scope of current settlement expansion as severely undermining the prospect of a two-state solution. 

 

 

As Another Cycle of West Bank Violence Intensifies, the ‘Gazafication’ of the West Bank is Well Underway

A new cycle of Israeli-Palestinian violence intensified this month, with fatal attacks in Tel Aviv, Huwara, Hebron, and the Maccabim checkpoint underscoring how Israeli policies vis-à-vis the West Bank are contributing to the proliferation of Palestinian militant activity increasingly resembling the complexities of the Gaza Strip. 

Palestinian terror attacks have claimed the lives of 31 Israeli civilians and security personnel so far this year, while over 200 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, surpassing the total killed in all of 2022 and putting this year on track to be the deadliest on record since 2005.


Israel has pointed squarely at Iran as fueling the current wave of violence through support for local proxies Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. But the role of Israel’s rapid and ongoing expansion of illegal settlements, daily military raids undermining Palestinian Authority legitimacy, and rampant assaults by Israeli settlers in perpetuating the cycle of violence cannot be discounted.

“Hamas is galvanizing both political and military power in the West Bank, benefiting from local and regional support. But the failure of the peace process, the inability of the Palestinian Authority to provide effective governance, and the expansion of the Israeli settlement project in a manner that kills any remaining hope for Palestinian statehood, has undoubtedly paved the way for Hamas and PIJ to alter the equation in the West Bank,” says analyst Mohammed Daraghmeh.

The attack in Huwara this month, specifically, targeted outwardly secular-appearing Israelis who often frequent Palestinian villages in the West Bank for business and commerce – a departure from attacks targeting either security forces or religious ideological settlers that marked an escalation and broadening of Israeli-Palestinian tensions. 

In response to this month’s attacks, Israel sealed off Hebron and Nablus preventing movement in and out of the cities. Critics have repeatedly warned that Israel’s policies of collective punishment only serve to invigorate Palestinian resistance, but Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir doubled down on the policy asserting that Jewish right to life and the freedom of movement of Jews throughout the West Bank’s settlements take precedence over the freedom of movement of the Palestinians who live under Israeli occupation in the territory. 


Vocalized by Ben Gvir, the current Israeli government’s promotion of policies of Jewish supremacy in the West Bank have only served to inflame the situation – resulting in the creeping “Gazafication” of the West Bank arena.

“The upshot of the 2005 Disengagement from Gaza has become one of the most common arguments against a future Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank; we left Gaza and got rockets. As a result, many Israelis see the evacuation of West Bank settlements – not to mention military withdrawal – as a drastic blow to Israeli security. In response to this logic, the Israeli government is implementing the opposite of disengagement in the West Bank today,” Geneva Initiative Deputy Director Tehila Wenger writes in an analysis for The Jerusalem Post this month.

“However, as the Israeli government escalates settlement expansion and IDF activity in Palestinian cities, the territories east of the Green Line are instead becoming strongholds for Palestinian terror that threatens to surpass anything Gaza can produce.” 

Over the past several months, Hamas and PIJ have replicated tactics exported from Gaza in the Jenin-Nablus area: digging tunnels, manufacturing weapons, launching rockets, and fostering deeper cooperation and coordination in their activities. And with the Israeli government opening increasing points of friction through their promotion of (or indifference to) settler expansionism and vigilantism, this cycle of violence is likely to continue to intensify until a breaking point is reached.


“After decades of relying on deterrence through violence, escalation is now the new status quo. The ‘Gazafication’ of the West Bank is not a theoretical threat to be used against any hint of settlement evacuation. It is the reality unfolding on the ground today,” Wenger says.

Recognizing that the current trajectory playing out in the West Bank is not in the long-term interest of any party, (besides Hamas), Israel and the US are counting on a highly-coveted Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement to bring some stability to the regional architecture. 

And while it remains to be seen whether Riyadh will continue to insist on a permanent solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a prerequisite for a normalization agreement, the Palestinian Authority is said to be seeking gestures that would shore up its legitimacy and advance its bid for statehood in the context of US-Saudi-Israeli negotiations, including resuming Saudi financial support to the PA, significant steps on the ground, and public statements of a political nature. 
 
The TSI’s “Palestinian attacks (West Bank)” parameter rises from 8 to 8.5 this month, on par with the “Settler Violence” parameter. 

 

 

Israeli Government Approves $850m East Jerusalem Development Plan, Solidifying Grip Over City’s Disputed East

The Israeli government this month approved a new five-year, 3.2 billion shekels ($850 million) plan for the development of East Jerusalem through investment in infrastructure, education, employment, welfare and the environment. The plan is a continuation of a 2018 initiative which represents the government’s largest investment in East Jerusalem since its annexation in 1967. 

Though producing some tangible improvements since its initial approval, the plan has also been criticized as primarily intended to tighten Israel’s grip over the disputed city – the final status of which is meant to be decided as part of a political peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. 

“Israel is using a kind of soft power to change the reality in Jerusalem. The new Israeli budget for East Jerusalem is meant to annex the Palestinian people, after annexing the city,” says Palestinian analyst Fuad Abu Hamid.


While East Jerusalem Palestinians live under Israeli sovereignty, they do not have political rights – they are not citizens, cannot vote in national elections, and while they can vote in municipal elections they cannot be elected Mayor. And while Palestinians represent 40% of Jerusalem’s total population, only approximately 10-15% of Jerusalem’s municipal budget is allocated to Palestinian sector creating a stark distinction between the nature of urban life in East and West.

“This has created two national collectives in Jerusalem – one with political power, and one with none. One with inalienable rights, and one with alienable rights,” says Danny Seidemann, founder of Terrestrial Jerusalem.  

“Israel ascribes to an East Jerusalem policy of ‘buy them and break them’ – placating the Palestinians with material benefits and keeping them under control through heavy-handed policing. Palestinians have developed a mirror response – ‘resist and adapt’ – maintaining that their national identity is not for sale but working within the system to survive.”

“The confluence between these two paradigms has created a rather stable interface that has long sustained the status-quo in Jerusalem,” explains Seidemann.

With regards to the Israeli government’s investment in East Jerusalem since 2018, Seidemann describes what he calls “the good, the bad, and the ugly”. The good – an expansion of park space, an expansion of afternoon study programs for Palestinian children, and for the first time a commitment to approve 2,000 new housing units for Palestinian residents. 


The bad – numerous “conditional benefits”, such as an emphasis on education and vocational training that dilutes Arab identity by promoting enrollment in Israeli curriculums, emphasizing Hebrew-language studies, and further integration of East Jerusalem Palestinians into Israeli society, market and workforce – without extending them any political rights. 

The ugly – the use of updated land registration mechanisms to take over Palestinian property and tighten Israel’s grip on East Jerusalem by means of settlement, as well as the plan’s emphasis on community policing in a clear move to tighten control over the Palestinian population by a police force that has become increasingly hostile and aggressive under the authority of far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir.

One fundamental aspect that is glaringly absent from the plan, Seidemann notes, is a Palestinian name in its authorship: “Despite some good ideas and good intentions which have produced some positive results in certain sectors, the plan completely disempowers the Palestinians and is, at its core, an Israeli view of what East Jerusalem should be. Ultimately, it is a reflection of the Israeli occupation.”

“In many ways, the plan is palatable for those who support the two-state solution. But it is ultimately antithetical to it. Palestinians will not waive their aspirations for political autonomy, cultural identity, and basic rights and freedoms in exchange for budgetary crumbs off the Israeli table.”

The TSI’s “Jerusalem - Palestinian Civil Life” parameter – tracking the ability of Palestinians to develop civil and political infrastructure in East Jerusalem – drops from 4 to 3.5 this month.

 

 

Far-Right Ministers Blur Lines Between West Bank and Israel: How the Conflict Affects the Israeli-Arab Community

A prevailing mentality of racism and discrimination is increasingly palpable in some far-right Israeli government ministers’ decisions as they blur the lines between policies vis-à-vis Palestinians in the West Bank and policies vis-à-vis Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Addressing a wave of murders sweeping through Palestinian communities in Israel, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir this month suggested that the Shin Bet security agency should lead investigations into such crimes, and that administrative detention (indefinite detention without trial or charge) should be used against Israeli-Arab crime suspects.

Such measures are typically used by the military to fight terrorism, primarily against Palestinians in the West Bank, and Ben Gvir’s suggestion that the controversial measure be extended to Palestinian citizens of Israel underscores an underlying assumption among far-right government ministers that Arab-Israeli citizens are a fifth column in Israel.


The same notion underlies a decision by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich this month to freeze 200 million shekels $52.75 million) in funding for Israeli-Arab municipalities, serving Palestinian citizens of Israel, saying that the funds could end up in the hands of what he called “criminal and terrorist elements”. Though the funds were ultimately released, Smotrich’s decision and reasoning was decried as blatant discrimination and racism.

As far-right ministers act to realize their vision of annexation of the West Bank, such decisions offer a glimpse into how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is slowly blurring the Green Line with devastating impact for Palestinian citizens of Israel.

No changes are recorded to relevant TSI parameters.

 

 

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.

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