Ramadan 2023: A Deceptive Calm
Dear Friends,

With tensions across Israel and the West Bank at an all-time high, the ultra-sensitive convergence of Ramadan, Passover, and Easter posed a major test for Israelis and Palestinians seeking to avoid deteriorating into a full-scale conflagration. Though the holiday passed in relative calm, the underlying drivers and agitators of the conflict continue to boil just below the surface and without any meaningful steps towards a diplomatic horizon the situation is bound to erupt again.

The Two State Index drops -0.2% from 5.05 to 5.04. Scroll through the headlines below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution.

 

 

April at a Glance:


  • With Coordinated and Measured Steps, Israelis and Palestinians Avoid Further Deterioration as Passover, Ramadan, and Easter Pass in Relative Calm: Thin thread of engagement between Israel and the PA in the wake of Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh summits contribute to relative calm over holiday.

  • In a Shifting Mideast Landscape, Ongoing Stalemate with Palestinians Could See Israel Facing Major Multi-Front Escalation: Hamas moves to shore up alliances amid regional reconfiguration catalyzed by Saudi-Iran-Syria rapprochements.

  • Israel Looks to Significantly Scale Up Budget for West Bank Settlement Infrastructure, Monitoring and Enforcement Against Palestinian Construction: Major budget boost reflects policy of de-facto annexation, spearheaded by far-right, ultra-nationalist Ministers with ideological pro-settlement agenda.

  • 15,000 Attend Joint Israeli-Palestinian Memorial Day Ceremony: Even with Supreme Court at the center of political firestorm in Israel, ruling allowing Palestinian participation met with no significant backlash

  • 14 Democrats Urge Biden to Shift Approach to Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Probe US Aid Violations: Unilateral policy of de-facto annexation and deteriorating regional security situation has increased pressure on White House to take firmer position.


These events decreased the Two State Index by -0.2% in March (down 0.01 points from 5.05 to 5.04)

 

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With Coordinated and Measured Steps, Israelis and Palestinians Avoid Further Deterioration as Passover, Ramadan, and Easter Pass in Relative Calm

Despite flaring tensions ahead of the convergence of Ramadan, Passover, and Easter this month, the ultra-sensitive holiday period passed in relative calm with Israelis and Palestinians defying expectations of a wider conflagration thanks to coordinated and measured steps taken to curb tensions on the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif compound.

The contentious shooting of a Bedouin-Palestinian man by Israeli forces in Jerusalem’s Old City at the start of the month, a number of Palestinian attacks in Tel Aviv, the Jordan Valley, and Jerusalem’s central market, and near-daily Israeli military raids that saw deadly clashes erupt in Palestinian cities including Jenin and Nablus, and rocket fire from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, all heightened expectations of a further deterioration during Ramadan. Since the beginning of the year, 19 Israeli civilians, soldiers, and foreign citizens have been killed in Palestinian attacks. More than 95 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces during the same period. 


But increasing levels of coordination between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the wake of two monthly summits in Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh have opened a thin thread of engagement between the sides that contributed to this month’s relative calm. 

Ahead of Ramadan, Israel announced a series of measures to ease Palestinian access to Jerusalem during the holy month, allowing Palestinian women, children up to age 12, and men over the age of 55 to enter Israel and the Haram al-Sharif compound in Jerusalem without a permit for the Ramadan Friday prayers. By comparison, these measures were stricter than in previous years when men aged 50+ were allowed to enter the compound without a special permit. 

Nonetheless, these measures came in tangent with a number of other coordinated decisions taken in the wake of the two high-level meetings between Israeli and Palestinian officials (with US, Egyptian, and Jordanian mediation). This included freezing home demolitions and settlement announcements during Ramadan and barring Jews and other non-Muslims from visiting the Temple Mount during the last 10 days of Ramadan (which overlapped with the Jewish holiday of Passover).


According to Waqf authorities, a record 4 million Muslim worshippers visited the al-Aqsa Mosque compound over the month of Ramadan including 280,000 on Laylat Al-Qadr – the holiest night of the Ramadan holiday and the most important night of the Islamic calendar. 

Rami Mahmoud, an official in the Jerusalem Waqf department, says that the number of visitors to al-Aqsa this year was the highest in the past two decades.Mr. Mahmoud attributed the spike in part to a “defiant spirit” of the Palestinian people in the wake of threats of Israeli far-right officials and activists to practice ritual prayer at the site, but also to the comparatively measured response of Israeli officials during isolated incidents on the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif compound this year. 

Israeli police raided the Al-Aqsa Mosque on at least two occasions to remove Palestinians who had barricaded themselves inside, resulting in hundreds of arrests and dozens of wounded Palestinians. Video footage of Israeli forces storming the mosque and brutally beating worshippers drew international condemnation and triggered rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip, Southern Lebanon, and Syria. 

But amid warnings that Israel was teetering on the brink of a serious multi-front conflagration, Israeli forces showed significantly more restraint, working with the Waqf to peacefully clear hundreds of Palestinian worshippers barricaded inside the mosque compound on subsequent occasions.


As is typical during the convergence of Ramadan and Passover, flames were fanned by an increase in Jewish visitors to Temple Mount and attempts by extremist Jewish activists to encourage ceremonial Passover sacrifices at the holy site. Despite Israeli officials clamping down on the practice year after year, the threat of any change to the fragile status quo of Jerusalem’s holy sites is used by Hamas and other organizations as a pretense for escalating tensions.

The TSI’s reversed-scale Palestinian Attacks (West Bank) and IDF Military Actions (West Bank) parameters both drop from 8 to 7 this month, on account of the relative calm. The reversed-scale settler violence parameter also drops this month, from 8.5 to 7.5 thanks to a decision to bar Jewish activists from ascending Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif during the convergence of Ramadan and Passover, which would have led to wider clashes and violence. The TSI’s Jerusalem Holy Sites Parameter, measuring the integrity of and access to holy sites based on established religious Status Quo, rises from 5 to 6 this month on account of unprecedented Muslim access to Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif this year and successful efforts by Israeli forces to curb provocations at the holy site.

 

 

In a Shifting Mideast Landscape, Ongoing Stalemate with Palestinians Could See Israel Facing Major Multi-Front Escalation

Back-to-back rocket bombardments from the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Syria in response to developments in Jerusalem this month underscores how a rapidly changing Middle East landscape and a shifting of US priorities towards other foreign policy issues could see Israel facing a major multi-front escalation in the future if a deterioration in Israeli-Palestinian relations continues. 

A rare rocket salvo from Lebanon this month sparked particular concern, with at least 36 rockets launched into northern Israel in what was the heaviest barrage since the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Israel attributed the rocket attacks to the Lebanese wing of Hamas, which operates from Lebanese territory with the tacit approval of (and coordination with) Iran and its local proxy Hezbollah.


The rocket bombardment came as the Gaza-based group’s senior leadership met with Iranian and Hezbollah officials in Beirut in a move to shore up its regional alliances and boost its diplomatic and political standing. Further connections between Tehran and Hamas were drawn as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi delivered an unprecedented speech to a rally of Hamas and Islamic Jihad supporters in the Gaza Strip, during which he urged Palestinians to persevere in their struggle against Israel. 

“The failure of the Palestinian Authority to achieve an independent Palestinian State by way of a peace process has given Hamas a floor on which to build an alternative political foundation that competes directly with the PA as representing the will of the Palestinian people,” says analyst Mohammed Daraghmeh.

“Hamas has emerged as a more effective player than the PA, and its latest approach is to open multiple fronts against Israel with far more advanced capabilities, giving it stronger deterrence power and a more practical, action-oriented alternative to the PA’s approach,” Daraghmeh explains. “In this case, any move by Israel that weakens the PA and undermines the two-state solution leaves Israel facing a far more challenging security situation.”


Meanwhile, in a further blow to the PA’s local and international standing, Hamas dispatched a senior delegation headed by politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh to Saudi Arabia this month in a visit that coincided with a meeting between PA President Mahmoud Abbas and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. 

Though the Hamas visit to Saudi Arabia was deemed an apolitical religious visit, analysts say the visit marked a major development as Hamas seeks to improve relations with Riyadh, after Saudi Arabia accused Hamas of undermining the Mecca agreement for Palestinian reconciliation in 2007. Palestinian analysts view this month’s visit as made possible by a regional reconfiguration underway, catalyzed by a renewal in relations between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Syria.

For its part, Israel has made no secret of its desire to forge more open ties with Saudi Arabia, which continues to insist that official ties between the two countries must be preceded by a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. With no Israeli-Palestinian peace process on the horizon, however, Israel’s hopes for a formal diplomatic relationship with Riyadh appear to be falling to the wayside.

"The geopolitical map of the Middle East is changing swiftly, and it seems that with the new alliance of forces the Palestinians might enjoy slightly more visibility than before," says Ksenia Svetlova, Executive Director of The Regional Organization For Peace, Economics & Security (ROPES). 

"The Abraham Accords still stand strong, since the Arab states see Israel as an asset in many ways...However, they do not expand and there is no expectation that it will happen in the near future, while the public opinion in these states is strongly pro-Palestinian and increasingly anti-Israeli."

There are no changes recorded to the TSI’s International Actors Parameters this month. The US, Arab World, Europe, and Other International Actors parameters all remain unchanged at 7/10.

 

 

Israel Looks to Significantly Scale Up Budget for West Bank Settlement Infrastructure, Monitoring and Enforcement Against Palestinian Construction

Israel will seek to significantly increase the budget allocated for expanding infrastructure serving West Bank settlements while doubling funds for monitoring and enforcing a crackdown on Palestinian construction as it looks to pass the State Budget by the end of May.

Far-right ultra-nationalist Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Transportation Minister Miri Regev this month announced plans to allocate more than $1 billion of the State’s annual general budget every year to develop roads and infrastructure in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, as part of a multi-year plan to facilitate the expansion of settlements in these areas. The massive allocation for roads and infrastructure serving West Bank settlements amounts to 25% of the Transportation Ministry's entire budget. 

In addition, the budget allocated to so-called “land departments” established in West Bank settlements to monitor and report on Palestinian construction in Area C is set to double, rising from 20 million shekels ($5.5 million) allocated to such departments when they were first established in 2020 to 40 million shekels ($11.1 million) in the proposed 2024 budget. 


Though they do not have enforcement powers, the increased budgets would allow settlement authorities to expand inspection units and purchase drones, aerial photos, vehicles, and other equipment and infrastructure to monitor and even prevent Palestinian land use in Area C. The Israeli government is hoping to pass the proposed budget by May 29th.

The budget is a reflection of the current government’s policy of de-facto annexation of the West Bank, spearheaded by far-right, ultra-nationalist Ministers with an ideological pro-settlement agenda. More than 20 coalition members and at least 7 Cabinet Ministers participated this month in a march to the evacuated outpost of Evyatar, signaling a clear intention to promote re-settlement of it and other evacuated outposts following the repeal of clauses of the landmark 2005 Disengagement Law last month. 

The march drew thousands of Israeli settlers and was protected by an entire IDF battalion and 13 Border Police companies, who clashed with Palestinian protesters in the nearby village of Beita, resulting in 216 Palestinians injuries, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent Society.


Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made efforts to temper the settlement ambitions of the more hardline elements of his coalition in order to balance their political will with international diplomatic and security considerations. A government decision published this month requested that the Supreme Court reject a petition submitted by the organization Regavim (co-founded by current Finance Minister Smotrich) demanding the eviction of residents of the Palestinian village of Khan al-Ahmar, near Jerusalem.

The government’s response, which marks the 10th time the State has requested to postpone the forced eviction and demolition of the Palestinian village, was made on the basis of “diplomatic and security considerations”, and points to an ongoing effort by the government to reach an agreed-upon solution for the village’s 250 Palestinian residents. 

There are no changes to relevant TSI parameters this month. The reversed-scale Settlement Planning and Settlement Construction parameters remain at 3/10 and 4/10 respectively, while the Settlement Infrastructure parameter remains unchanged at 4/10 pending the government’s approval of the expanded settlement infrastructure budget.

 

 

Other Developments

  • 15,000 Attend Joint Israeli-Palestinian Memorial Day Ceremony: Approximately 15,000 participants attended a joint Israeli-Palestinian Memorial Day Ceremony in Tel Aviv’s Ganei Yehoshua Park this month, with bereaved Israeli and Palestinian families commemorating together the lives of loved ones lost to the 70-year conflict. Attendance was notably higher than the last time the event was held in-person in 2019, when some 10,000 supporters participated in the event. Between 2020-2022, the event was held online or in hybrid formats due to COVID-19 restrictions. In addition to a boost in participation, backlash and opposition to the event was also more muted than in previous years, drawing only a small contingency of right-wing protesters. Ahead of the event, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had tried to prevent Palestinian participants from entering Israel, but the Supreme Court ordered Gallant to allow participants entry citing two previous court rulings from 2018 and 2019. Even with the Supreme Court currently at the center of a political firestorm in Israel, there was no significant backlash to the Court’s decision. There are no changes to TSI parameters.


  • 14 Democrats Urge Biden to Shift Approach to Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Probe US Aid Violations: Fourteen progressive Democratic lawmakers from both the House and Senate penned a letter urging US President Joe Biden to shift its policy vis-à-vis the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and to ensure that US aid is not being used to support Israeli settlements projects or violating legislation stipulating that military aid be used for legitimate self-defense only and prohibiting US funding from equipping or training foreign military forces suspected of human rights abuses or war crimes. The letter marks the most significant missive by US lawmakers to date against the Israeli government, amid flaring violence and tensions and increasing American scrutiny of Israeli government policies in the West Bank. The Biden administration has taken a decidedly hands-off approach to the conflict since Netanyahu’s hardline government came to power, but a unilateral policy of de-facto annexation and the deteriorating regional security situation has increased pressure on the White House to take firmer and more concrete actions. There are no changes to TSI parameters. 

 

 

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.

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