Ramadan 2023: A Deceptive Calm
Dear Friends,

With tensions across Israel and the West Bank at an all-time high, the ultra-sensitive convergence of Ramadan, Passover, and Easter posed a major test for Israelis and Palestinians seeking to avoid deteriorating into a full-scale conflagration. Though the holiday passed in relative calm, the underlying drivers and agitators of the conflict continue to boil just below the surface and without any meaningful steps towards a diplomatic horizon the situation is bound to erupt again.

The Two State Index drops -0.2% from 5.05 to 5.04. Scroll through the headlines below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution.



April at a Glance:

  • With Coordinated and Measured Steps, Israelis and Palestinians Avoid Further Deterioration as Passover, Ramadan, and Easter Pass in Relative Calm: Thin thread of engagement between Israel and the PA in the wake of Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh summits contribute to relative calm over holiday.

  • In a Shifting Mideast Landscape, Ongoing Stalemate with Palestinians Could See Israel Facing Major Multi-Front Escalation: Hamas moves to shore up alliances amid regional reconfiguration catalyzed by Saudi-Iran-Syria rapprochements.

  • Israel Looks to Significantly Scale Up Budget for West Bank Settlement Infrastructure, Monitoring and Enforcement Against Palestinian Construction: Major budget boost reflects policy of de-facto annexation, spearheaded by far-right, ultra-nationalist Ministers with ideological pro-settlement agenda.

  • 15,000 Attend Joint Israeli-Palestinian Memorial Day Ceremony: Even with Supreme Court at the center of political firestorm in Israel, ruling allowing Palestinian participation met with no significant backlash

  • 14 Democrats Urge Biden to Shift Approach to Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Probe US Aid Violations: Unilateral policy of de-facto annexation and deteriorating regional security situation has increased pressure on White House to take firmer position.

These events decreased the Two State Index by -0.2% in March (down 0.01 points from 5.05 to 5.04)