A Critical Juncture
Dear friends,

This month, the most deadly and sustained period of violence between Israelis and Palestinians since the Second Intifada reached shocking new heights. At the same time, damaging policies and inflammatory rhetoric are being met with growing opposition, both on a local grassroots level and internationally. We have reached a crucial juncture in the conflict. If immediate action is not taken to reduce tensions and restore the hope of a diplomatic horizon, the situation will continue to spin out of control.

The Two State Index drops -0.8% this month, from 5.00 to 4.96. Scroll through the headlines below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution.

 

 

February at a Glance:


  • Violence Spirals Out of Control: Are Israel and the West Bank on the Brink of a Third Intifada? 24-hours of chaos in Hawara as Israeli, Palestinian, US, Jordanian, and Egyptian leaders huddle in Aqaba shows situation is liable to spin out of control of all parties unless immediate steps are taken

  • More Than an Internal Political Matter - The Impact of Israel’s Judicial Reforms on Annexation Plans: As hundreds of thousands of Israelis repeatedly take to the streets, objections to the judicial overhaul are also taking an increasingly international dimension

  • US Steps Up Mideast Diplomacy as Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Reaches Critical Juncture: Israeli settlement expansion and revenge-fueled settler riot in Hawara test the limits of Washington's ability to remain uninvolved.

These events decreased the Two State Index by -0.8% in February (down 0.04 points from 5.00 to 4.96)

 

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Violence Spiraling Out of Control: Are Israel and the West Bank on the Brink of a Third Intifada?

A month of lethal violence crescendoed as February drew to a close, with the murder of two Israeli civilians in the West Bank town of Hawara sparking an hours-long revenge rampage by a mob of Israeli settlers, during which one Palestinian was killed and hundreds more injured. The chaos in Hawara unfolded as Israeli and Palestinian security officials met with US, Egyptian, and Jordanian mediators in Aqaba in an effort to quell tensions that have brought the West Bank to the brink of explosion ahead of the sensitive Ramadan period.

The tit-for-tat continued with a fatal Palestinian shooting attack near Jericho less than 24-hours later that claimed the life of an Israeli-American citizen. Since the beginning of the year, a total of 14 Israelis and at least 60 Palestinians have been killed in Israel and the West Bank, in what has been the deadliest and most prolonged period of violence since the Second Intifada.

“The recent attacks in Nablus area that coincided with the summit in Jordan clearly shows that the situation on the ground is spiraling out of control of political leaders,” says Palestinian writer Mohammed Younis. “These events offer a glimpse of the trajectory this conflict is taking in the absence of a viable political solution – that being a direct and violent clash between Palestinians and Jewish settlers in the West Bank. Without a political horizon, no one can ensure security or stability in any part of the West Bank.”


Less than a week earlier, 11 Palestinians were killed in yet another deadly Israeli military raid aimed at rounding up Palestinians suspected of planning terror attacks, including those affiliated with the loosely-organized Nablus-based “Lion’s Den” organization which has been behind a number of recent shootings across the West Bank. Israel’s nearly year-long anti-terror offensive has seen nightly incursions into Palestinian cities, sparking increasingly widespread clashes and drawing responses from Gazan militant groups.

Palestinian analysts warn, however, that Israel’s continued crackdown in the West Bank – coupled with unbridled settlement expansion, the threat of annexation, and a complete absence of a diplomatic horizon – is quickly eroding the PA’s legitimacy and could reach a critical peak.

“The only thing that differentiates the current cycle of violence from the Second Intifada is [PA President Mahmoud] Abbas. Abbas and his forces are staunch opponents of any military confrontation with Israel and are willing to cooperate with Israel to avoid open clashes. But this also puts Abbas in a difficult position politically. If the PA does not succeed in reaching a deal with Israel that puts an end to the IDF’s lethal raids on Palestinian cities, things will spiral out of the PA’s hands,” analyst Mohammed Daraghmeh says.

“The young Palestinian generation that wasn’t exposed to the atrocities of the Second Intifada are now taking it upon themselves to resist the Israeli occupation by any means necessary. If the Israeli raids continue, the voices calling for armed resistance will grow louder and carry far more influence across the West Bank than the PA can withstand.”

No changes are recorded to relevant TSI parameters. The Palestinian attacks (West Bank) and IDF Military actions (West Bank parameters remain unchanged at 8/10, while the reverse-scale Settler Violence parameter rises to 8.5/10. The Israeli-Palestinian Security Coordination parameter remains unchanged at 7/10.

 

 

More Than an Internal Political Matter: The Impact of Israel’s Judicial Reforms on Annexation Plans

Israel this month took clear steps towards de facto annexation of the West Bank, finalizing an agreement that handed ultranationalist MK Bezalel Smotrich governing powers in the West Bank while announcing an unprecedented settlement expansion package that includes advancing 7,287 new settlement units (close to double the number approved in 2021 or 2022) and regulating 15 illegal outposts – nine of which were legalized as new settlements and six of which were regulated as “new neighborhoods” of existing settlements.

At the same time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition is steamrolling controversial legislation aimed at subverting the authority of the High Court of Justice through the Knesset despite escalating protests. As hundreds of thousands of Israelis repeatedly take to the streets, objections to the judicial overhaul are also taking an increasingly international dimension as it becomes clear that this is not only an “internal political matter”, but a consequential development that carries serious implications for the trajectory of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.


“The planned judicial reforms will erode the power and authority of both the internal and external gatekeepers of the rule of law vis-à-vis the government, ultimately facilitating annexation and allowing for violations of human rights law and humanitarian law against Palestinians,” explains international legal expert Dr. Michal Salternik. “Amendments to the semi-constitutional Basic Law: Judiciary will erode the principle of ‘reasonableness’ and turn judges into political appointees, leaving the Court with very little power – and very little willingness – to intervene in response to violations of Israeli or international law.”

The Court will be left without the ability to nullify problematic government decisions and legislation, as it did in 2020, when it invalidated a 2017 law to legalize the status of settlements partially built on privately owned Palestinian land. Many of the outposts regulated this month were built on disputed lands where Palestinian civilians claim ownership, and at least one was established on land designated as an IDF firing zone – highlighting double standards when it comes to unauthorized Palestinian construction in Masafer Yatta.

“Beyond this, amendments to the Basic Law: Government will also weaken the status of government legal advisors by making their opinions non-binding in all circumstances, and allowing government officials to personally appoint legal advisors or seek external counsel if they are not happy with the opinions rendered by internal advisors,” Salternik explains.

“For now, this does not apply to the legal advisors of the military, who are currently doing crucial work supervising the decisions of the IDF, including the Civil Administration. But by transferring authority of the Civil Administration from the military to the government, not only will legal advice pertaining to civilian affairs in the West Bank no longer be binding, but Smotrich will be able to personally appoint legal advisors who are not necessarily committed to the rule of law.”


The erosion of the independence of the judiciary will likely expose Israel to increased international scrutiny. “As long as international and foreign courts can trust that the local judicial system is able to enforce the rule of law, their intervention is restrained. In light of the nature of current reforms, however, it is not unlikely that Israel would be subject to international investigations and proceedings,” says Salternik.

While analysts say it is unlikely that individual soldiers would be held criminally responsible for war crimes, they could be summoned to participate in broader investigations and proceedings. Such proceedings are likely to harm Israel diplomatically and impact the protection and support Israel receives from key US and European allies in the UN and other international forums, opening up  a host of other possible consequences, including changes to visa requirements, economic sanctions, and more.

The TSI’s reverse-scale Israeli Law in the West Bank parameter rises from 8 to 8.5/10 this month, while the reverse-scale Settlement Planning and Jerusalem Settlements parameters fall from 4 to 3/10. The reverse-scale Settlement Construction parameter drops from 4 to 3.5 this month, with the plans advanced in some cases retroactively approving construction that has already been carried out on the ground.

 

 

US Steps Up Mideast Diplomacy as Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Reaches Critical Juncture

The US stepped up its diplomatic efforts in the region this month as violence and tensions between Israelis and Palestinians reached a critical juncture, and as Israeli settlement expansion and an unprecedented revenge-fueled settler riot in Hawara tested the limits of Washington’s ability to remain uninvolved.

In its most forceful comments to date, the US condemned a string of tit-for-tat shooting attacks that killed three Israelis, including one Israeli-American citizen, but focused largely on the deadly rampage by a mob of extremist Israeli settlers.

Demanding “full accountability and legal prosecution” of settlers involved in the riot, State Department spokesperson Ned Price stated that “accountability and justice should be pursued with equal rigor in all cases of extremist violence and equal resources dedicated to prevent such attacks and bring those responsible to justice.” The remarks are a signal of the Biden Administration’s growing frustration with the longstanding impunity of perpetrators of settler violence, which it views as partially driving current tensions.


In the wake of the US call for accountability, Israeli police said that 6 suspects were detained over their alleged involvement in the rampage. Another 8 individuals arrested earlier had all been released – three to house arrest. The IDF, meanwhile, vowed to “thoroughly investigate” after security forces failed to contain the violence over the five-hour tumult.

Earlier this month, US mediation narrowly averted a UN Security Council resolution on Israeli settlement expansion, which would have put the Biden Administration in the uncomfortable position of using its veto in Israel's favor despite repeatedly criticizing the settlement plans in official statements. The US has vetoed 53 UN resolutions on Israel’s behalf since 1972. 
In 2016, President Obama’s decision not to veto a resolution declaring all Jewish settlements in occupied Palestinian territory illegal marked an historic low in US-Israel relations. The Biden Administration’s efforts to dodge a resolution at the UN this month raises questions about American strategy in response to the deteriorating situation on the ground.
 
Meanwhile, Israel’s finalizing of an agreement to transfer key Defense Ministry powers relating to West Bank civilian affairs to far-right Minister Bezalel Smotrich also flies in the face of a clear warning by Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf this month that such a move would be considered by Washington as a clear step towards annexation. 

“Israel will continue to push the Biden administration’s red lines so long as doing so serves Netanyahu’s short-term interests. It’s not enough for US intervention to only prevent harmful steps on the ground. It must aim to create a political horizon that will fundamentally alter the current trajectory Israelis and Palestinians are on,” says J-Street Israel Executive Director Nadav Tamir. 

“The new Israeli government – both because of its actions internally and with regards to the Palestinian issue – is creating an opportunity for a new understanding within the US Administration,” Tamir says. “The argument that Israel is stretching its hand for peace but has no partner on the Palestinian side is no longer valid. This government has made it clear that it is not interested in reaching out its hand in peace. The argument that the occupation is temporary according to the conventions of international law is also no longer valid when steps on the ground clearly contravene the statutes of the Fourth Geneva Convention.”

The outbreak of violence in Hawara has, meanwhile, thrown into question the diplomatic achievements of a US-organized summit in Aqaba bringing together Israeli, Palestinian, Jordanian, Egyptian, and American officials to de-escalate violent tensions ahead of Ramadan, after the US had claimed some success with a statement that Israel agreed to temporarily freeze home demolitions, additional settlement construction and outpost legalizations.

Looking forward, a decision to re-schedule for March 27 a hearing to adjudicate rebuttals against the highly controversial E1 settlement project – a plan which has been the subject of intense scrutiny in Washington and has been repeatedly shelved under American pressure – will pose yet another test of the efficacy and limits of US diplomacy.

No changes are recorded to the TSI’s International Actors parameters. The US parameter and Arab World parameter both remain unchanged at 6/10.

 

 

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.

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