High Stakes, Global Attention

Dear friends,

This month, we saw the power of a united and sustained movement in support of democracy and equal rights protected by law. Increasingly pointed US engagement regarding proposed (and passed) legislation in Israel, some level of cooling relations with Abraham Accord partners, and legal changes directly related to Israeli-Palestinian relations resulting from the broader context of judicial overhaul, all point to the inseparability of protests against the Israeli government’s planned judicial overhaul and the fight for a just and lasting solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – with clear connections between internal political issues and their direct and consequential impact on human rights and a viable peace process.

The Two State Index rises +1.8% from 4.96 to 5.05. Scroll through the headlines below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution.

March at a Glance:

Revolt Over Proposed Judicial Reforms Sparks Crisis in US-Israel Relations, But Will US Pressure Include Israel’s Policies Vis-à-Vis Palestinians?
A Thin Thread of Engagement: Israeli and Palestinian Officials Meet for Second Security Summit as Tense Ramadan Begins
Green Light to Re-Settle Northern West Bank Settlements Emboldens Israeli Settler Leaders Wielding Unprecedented Political Power

These events increased the Two State Index by +1.8% in March (up 0.09 points from 4.96 to 5.05)

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Revolt Over Proposed Judicial Reforms Sparks Crisis in US-Israel Relations, But Will US Pressure Include Israel’s Policies Vis-à-Vis Palestinians?

The United States and other international allies notably scaled up their rhetoric and pressure against Israel this month as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s now-frozen judicial reforms were met with a dramatic revolt that brought the country to a standstill. As the crisis at home escalated steadily, Netanyahu made official visits to France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy where he was met with protests by both local pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian groups.

In public statements, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak all challenged Netanyahu on the importance of maintaining Israel’s “democratic values” while also calling for de-escalating tensions in the West Bank.

US President Joe Biden, whose approach towards the hardline Israeli government has been decidedly hands-off to date, also significantly increased pressure on Israel as the crisis intensified with the firing of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant – a step Washington judged to be a gross miscalculation. In unscripted remarks, Biden called on Netanyahu to “walk away” from the judicial overhaul legislation – even after controversial reforms were temporarily suspended – and made clear that Netanyahu would not receive a highly-coveted invitation to visit the White House in the near future.

Biden’s frank public criticism followed weeks of warnings by US officials that Israel was treading dangerously close to irreparably damaging the democratic values that underpin the US-Israel relationship. Analysts say that the swift intensification of US criticism reflects doubts in Washington over Netanyahu's control of his own government, and is likely to see increasing suspicion and scrutiny towards Israeli policies. But whether this includes Israel’s policies vis-à-vis the Palestinians may be another question.

“While I wouldn’t say that the Israeli-Palestinian issue doesn’t figure in the broader picture, there are other issues – namely Iran and Hezbollah – that are more acute, more imminent, and pose a greater threat to international peace and security and US interests,” explains Eran Etzion, former Deputy National Security Advisor and Executive Director of the Forum of Strategic Dialogue.

“The US has always perceived Netanyahu’s governments – both past and present – as problematic on the issue of the Palestinians and the Biden administration’s policy from day one has been to try and prevent further deterioration and minimize the amount of American engagement and investment that is required. The US recognizes that this is not a viable policy in the long-run, but is still not interested in investing serious political capital in the Israeli-Palestinian issue.”

Still, Washington must reckon with the fact that Netanyahu’s proposed judicial reforms cannot be decoupled entirely from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Not only has the crisis threatened to destabilize the Israeli military ahead of a particularly sensitive Ramadan and Passover period, but damaging policies vis-à-vis the Palestinians also negatively impacts the United States’ wider regional interests, including efforts to help Israel consolidate and broaden its regional alliances as it seeks to counter Iran’s influence and nuclear ambitions.

Officials from the United Arab Emirates warned repeatedly this month that damaging Israeli policies and measures were undermining the Abraham Accords and endangering political and diplomatic achievements with the Emirates and other Arab countries. Like the US, the UAE has so far also held off on extending an invitation to Netanyahu to visit the Emirates.

Saudi Arabia – with which Israel is seeking to normalize relations in the wake of the Kingdom’s rapprochement with Iran and Syria – has also staunchly criticized Israeli decisions to advance new settlement construction and to allow resettlement of evacuated West Bank areas. The Saudi government condemned inflammatory remarks made by extremist Israeli Minister Bezalel Smotrich denying the existence of a Palestinian people.

Both Netanyahu, and to some extent the White House, have attempted to downplay the rift in US-Israel relations. But Netanyahu must still convince critics that he truly “has his hands on the wheel” while he is beholden to the demands of his volatile and unpredictable ultranationalist coalition partners, whose actions and rhetoric threaten to exacerbate tensions.

The TSI’s International Actors (US) and International Actors (Arab World) both rise from 6 to 7 this month. The Israeli Public Discourse parameter rises from 5 to 6, with protests against judicial reform increasingly coupled with public debate on issues related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

GI Deputy Director Tehila Wenger: "Israel's Defenders Won't Have a Strong Basis Without Liberal Democracy"

The accepted international norm is for other democracies to lay off allies’ internal debates about institutions and the balance of power. In this case, however, a weakened judiciary will lead directly to annexation and a true regime change. The end result of the reforms is not just a weakened or illiberal democracy but a government exerting sovereign control over 3.5 million disenfranchised Palestinians.

Read the Full Article

A Thin Thread of Engagement: Israeli and Palestinian Officials Meet for Second Security Summit as Tense Ramadan Begins

High-level Israeli and Palestinian officials met in Sharm el-Sheikh this month accompanied by Egyptian, Jordanian, and US officials to discuss measures to calm a spiral of violence and skyrocketing tensions ahead of a delicate period which will see Ramadan overlap with Passover and a number of other sensitive Israeli national observances in April.

It was the second such meeting between top-ranking Israeli officials, led by National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, and their Palestinian counterparts PA Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh and Intelligence Chief Majed Faraj. The summit followed an earlier gathering in Jordan last month, which was the first such high-level meeting between Israeli and Palestinian leaders in years.

Among the consensus items outlined in a joint communique issued at the end of the summit included a pledge on Israel’s part to freeze discussions of new settlement units for 4 months, and to halt the authorization of any further outposts for 6 months. A move shortly thereafter to pass legislation allowing Israeli presence in evacuated settlements in the northern West Bank, as well issuing tenders for 1,029 new settlement units (940 in the West Bank settlements of Efrat and Beitar Illit, and 89 in East Jerusalem), called into question the seriousness of Israel’s commitments, however, as the more pragmatic Hanegbi and Bar contend with ideological political forces intent on expanding the Israeli settlement enterprise at all costs.

The joint statement also reaffirmed “the legal right” of the PA to carry out security responsibilities in Area (A) of the West Bank – a matter that has become a point of contention between the sides amid Israeli incursions into Palestinian strongholds deep in the West Bank in response to militant activities and the steady erosion of the PA’s legitimacy in those areas.

But perhaps the most significant outcome of this month’s tete-a-tete was an agreement by the parties to reconvene for a third meeting next month – signaling the opening of a thin but important channel of sustained political engagement between the sides that has been largely absent in recent years.

“The recent meetings between Palestinian and Israeli officials are significant, and important, even if they ultimately do not create any diplomatic horizon. Their importance lies in their political meaning,” says Palestinian analyst Mohammed Hawash.

Indeed, reports from behind the scenes of the summit indicate that Israeli and Palestinian officials’ understandings extended beyond the realm of security, including an Israeli commitment to release millions of dollars in tax revenues that Israel has withheld from the PA as well as broad agreements on matters relating to Palestinian prisoners’ living conditions.

Whether or not such political dialogue can be sustained, however, remains to be seen. “This thin thread of engagement is certainly not the result of a calculated Israeli political strategy, but rather the result of pressures from two main sources – the first being the Israeli security establishment, and the second the US administration,” analyst Eran Etzion explains.

“The issue of bilateral political dialogue has always been controversial and has always been thrust unwillingly on Netanyahu. With US-Israel relations souring, it will probably become increasingly difficult to maintain this momentum in the long-term. At some point, things will explode either on the ground or on the political level – with both Israel and the PA facing their own respective crises of confidence at home – and it will impact this channel negatively.”

In the short-term, however, Israel has a vested interest in avoiding a further deterioration as Ramadan converges with Passover and a number of other sensitive national observances – including Memorial Day, Independence Day, and Jerusalem Day – in April.

Violence and tensions are already soaring, and a spate of deadly Palestinian terrorist attacks and unchecked settler violence continued throughout the month. One Israeli civilian was killed in a shooting attack in central Tel Aviv, while two new shootings in Hawara in the span of a week continued to make the village a flashpoint for frictions between Palestinians and violent Israeli settlers.

Meanwhile, the fatal shooting of a Palestinian citizen of Israel by Israeli police forces in Jerusalem’s Old City at the end of the month – with differing accounts of the incident by police and eye-witnesses and apparently no video footage to validate claims that the suspect was shot while attempting to commit an attack – sparked outrage and threatened to potentially ignite further escalation during one of the most volatile months of the year.

Since the beginning of the year, a total of 15 Israelis and at least 85 Palestinians have been killed in Israel and the West Bank, in what has been the deadliest and most prolonged period of violence since the Second Intifada.

The TSI’s Israeli-Palestinian bilateral negotiations parameter rises from 2 to 2.5 this month, while the “Official Israeli-Palestinian Engagement” parameter rises from 3 to 3.5.

Green Light to Re-Settle Northern West Bank Settlements Emboldens Israeli Settler Leaders Wielding Unprecedented Political Power

The Israeli government this month repealed clauses of the landmark 2005 Disengagement Law, permitting Israeli access to outposts of Homesh, Ganim, Kadim and Sa-Nur, which were forcibly evacuated as part of Israel’s unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip. In the short term, the law is intended to legalize a yeshiva that has operated illegally for the past 15 years at Homesh, which is located on private Palestinian lands.

Though Netanyahu has stated that the legislation does not signal the government’s intention to build new settlements in these areas, in practice, the legislation is likely to see attempts to erect wildcat outposts at the sites and increased pressure on the government to re-settle these areas by settler leaders wielding unprecedented political power.

The legislation drew widespread international condemnation, with the expectation that any eventual re-settlement of the area will seriously threaten Palestinian territorial contiguity, and thus jeopardize the ability to reach a future political agreement. The US summoned Israeli Ambassador Mike Herzog to the State Department in response to the legislation, in a rare rebuke that marked the first time in more than a decade that an Israeli envoy has faced such a summons.

The White House slammed the legislation as a direct contradiction of understandings between Israel and the US, referencing a commitment made by then-prime minister Ariel Sharon to evacuate the four settlements in order to allow for more Palestinian territorial contiguity in the area in exchange for former president George W. Bush recognizing the need for land swaps in a future peace deal, thereby allowing major settlement blocs near the Green Line to remain under Israeli control.

In the wake of the legislation’s passing, far-right Minister of National Missions Orit Strock called for repealing the Disengagement Law in its entirety and for re-settling the Gaza Strip as well. Though such comments are overwhelmingly viewed as fanatical and outrageous, analysts say they do reflect a growing public sentiment, deliberately encouraged by ideological right-wing movements and actors, that quitting settled areas in the West Bank would have disastrous security consequences.

From a security perspective, however, this month’s legislation easing Israeli settlers’ access to the northern West Bank outposts raises the likelihood of violent consequences in and of itself. Two of the settlements in question are immediately adjacent to Jenin, a focal point of frequent violence and IDF incursions. The move is likely to see increased friction between settlers, soldiers, and Palestinian residents – with Homesh already a flashpoint for violence in the northern West Bank.

“These groups are not interested in the security and demographic elements that drove the late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to quit those areas. They have a different goal in mind regardless of what price both people will pay,” says Palestinian analyst Mohammed Younis.

With unprecedented political power, Israeli settler leaders have been more emboldened to pursue a policy of de-facto annexation with little cause for restraint. A power-sharing agreement between the Defense Ministry and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich published this month confirms that the far-right settler leader will have ultimate authority over West Bank planning, construction, land registration, infrastructure development, and more.

Smotrich infuriated Palestinians, Jordan, and the wider international community this month by denying the existence of a Palestinian people while standing in front of a ‘Greater Israel’ map that showed both Jordan and the West Bank annexed to Israel – a clear indication of the ideology by which his policies are shaped.

Meanwhile, a decision by the government to establish a committee to advance the creation of a ‘national civilian guard’ to operate under the direct command far-right Minister of Internal Security Itamar Ben Gvir (a move green-lit by Netanyahu in order to quell turmoil related to the suspension of judicial overhaul legislation) has sparked concerns that the force will become a settler-run militia at the beck and call of an avowed Jewish supremacist, with disastrous consequences for Palestinians.

The TSI’s “Expropriation of private Palestinian lands or legalization of settlements” parameter rises from 3 to 3.5 this month.

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.

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