Testing the Limits
Dear Friends, 

The first month of the new year culminated in a string of lethal events that have threatened to usher in a wider escalation between Israelis and Palestinians. Distrust, anger, and hopelessness are festering on both sides, exacerbated by inflammatory social and political discourse and the looming threat of destructive policies that undermine the prospect of a two-state solution. At the same time, the international community’s attention is returning to the conflict as Israelis and Palestinians societies mobilize to call for the protection of justice, human rights and dignity, and peace. 

The Two State Index rises +0.4% this month, from an all-time low of 4.98 to 5.00. Scroll through the headlines below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution.

 

 

January at a Glance:

  • Spiraling Violence in West Bank and East Jerusalem Tests US Red Lines: Blinken's tone departs from the relative passivity with which the US has previously spoken about the threats posed by the new Israeli government

  • After Bloodiest Month in Years, Israel and Palestinians Teeter on the Brink of a Full-Scale Escalation: The TSI breaks down the proximate causes of the recent violence
     
  • Israelis Mobilize Against Damaging Policies, But Only 40% View Occupation as Harmful: As Israelis rally en-masse, poll finds that only 36% of Israeli Jews believe the occupation harms Palestinians and 30% believe it doesn’t harm Palestinians at all. 

These events increased the Two State Index by +0.4% in January (up 0.02 points from 4.98 to 5.0)


 

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Spiraling Violence in West Bank and East Jerusalem Thrusts Israeli-Palestinian Conflict into International Consciousness, Tests US Red Lines:

Spiraling violence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem this month has drawn the international community’s attention to the increasing volatility of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and is testing Washington’s “red lines” as it navigates the proposed policies of the new Israeli government.  

A weekend of lethal attacks in Jenin and East Jerusalem occurred as Washington dispatched high-ranking diplomats including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and CIA Director Willian Burns to the region this month, on visits aimed at developing a working relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new hard-line government.

The US visits came as the international community sounded alarms over the rising tide of violence between Israelis and Palestinians. Two emergency UN Security Council sessions were convened this month at the request of the United Arab Emirates, China, and others following provocations at Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif and a deadly Israeli military raid in Jenin that was followed by two Palestinian shooting attacks in less than 24 hours. International condemnations poured in following the attacks, along with calls for both Israel and the Palestinian Authority to show restraint and avoid unilateral moves that would further inflame tensions.


As an international partner with undisputed influence on Israel, the Biden Administration is under particular scrutiny as it sets out to gain an understanding of the Israeli government’s plans vis-a-vis the West Bank and to demarcate its red lines on issues relating to settlements and East Jerusalem holy sites. The tone of Blinken’s visit marked a departure from the relative passivity with which the US has previously spoken about the threats posed by the new Israeli government, while maintaining the “wait and see” approach that banks on Netanyahu’s ability to restrain the more extremist, hardline elements of his governing coalition. 

In Israel, Blinken reminded Netanyahu in no uncertain terms that the US-Israel bilateral relationship hinges on both “shared interests” and “shared values” (a clear reference to proposed judicial overhauls seen as anti-democratic).In Ramallah, Blinken expressed clear support for the two-state solution and firm opposition to damaging policies including settlement and outpost expansion, demolitions and evictions, and disruptions to status quo in East Jerusalem.


Facing increasing isolation on the international stage, Palestinian leadership has repeatedly called for Washington to actively intervene in response to damaging Israeli policies and has been left disappointed with superficial American incentives offered in place of its undelivered promise to re-open the US Consulate in Jerusalem and an absence of efforts to advance diplomatic steps towards negotiations.

Still, Israel’s promise to "strengthen" West Bank settlements and gut the judiciary pose a major test for US-Israel relations. An assessment by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) finds that the deterioration of democracy will pose a direct threat to Israel’s relations with Western powers.

There are no changes to the TSI’s International Actors parameters. The US and Arab World Parameters remain at 6/10, while Europe and Other remain at 7/10.

 

 

After Bloodiest Month in Years, Israel and Palestinians Teeter on the Brink of a Full-Scale Escalation:

More than 30 Palestinians and 7 Israeli civilians were killed in January, with the first month of 2023 culminating in a weekend of lethal events in Jenin and Jerusalem that threaten to bring Israel and the Palestinians to the brink of a wider escalation. 

Nightly Israeli military raids across the West Bank that began in March 2022 continued throughout January, leaving more than thirty Palestinians dead in their wake – including ten in a single operation in the heart of Jenin. The deadly operation, targeting loosely-organized militias backed by Hamas as well as local affiliates of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, sparked rocket fire from Gaza and a retaliatory attack in East Jerusalem that claimed the lives of seven Israeli civilians – the single deadliest Palestinian attack on Israelis since 2008. Less than 24 hours later, two others were wounded in a second East Jerusalem shooting attack carried out by a 13-year-old Palestinian assailant.


The rapid deterioration in the security situation points to deepening mistrust, anger, and hopelessness. These public attitudes are hardened and exacerbated by the ideological positions of the current Israeli government, its provocations at East Jerusalem’s Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif holy site, and its commitment to policies that will enable de facto annexation of the West Bank. The violence poses the first major test for PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who must balance the demands of his ultranationalist, far-right coalition with the threat of an explosion in the West Bank.

The TSI breaks down the proximate causes of the recent violence:  

The De-Legitimization of the Palestinian Authority:

Israel’s near-nightly military incursions deep into the heart of the Palestinian Authority’s jurisdiction are eroding the last-remaining vestiges of the PA’s legitimacy. Hamas is capitalizing on discontent and frustration among Palestinian youth, deepening its ties with West Bank militants and strengthening its presence and political capital in the territory.

With little to no other deterrent power in its arsenal, the PA announced this month that it would cease security coordination with Israel. Analysts say this measure is more symbolic, however, than practical: “There is no way to stop security coordination completely in our complicated situation,” a senior Palestinian official said, also referring to the fact that Israel has the technological and operational capacities to carry out operations in West Bank cities regardless of the status of PA security cooperation.


Meanwhile, Palestinian efforts to counter Israel’s damaging policies through diplomatic channels – including successfully appealing to the International Court of Justice to rule on the legality of the occupation – have been met with punitive Israeli sanctions which analysts warn are liable to not only bring the PA closer to financial ruin, but also to complete political disintegration.

A report by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) published this month rates the collapse of the Palestinian Authority as the most urgent threat currently facing Israel, warning that Palestinian resentment and a lack of viable solution to the end of President Abbas’ chairmanship is likely to lead to lead to a surge in violence.

Looming Settlement Expansion, Crackdown on Palestinian Presence in Area C:

In response to this month’s attacks in East Jerusalem, PM Benjamin Netanyahu announced a series of punitive steps against the Palestinians, including sealing and demolishing the homes of Palestinian attackers, cancelling social security benefits for their families, and vowing to “strengthen” West Bank settlements. 

Settlement expansion is a core tenet of the new government’s platform, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich – whose authority over West Bank construction policy as second minister in the Defense Ministry has yet to be truly defined – said that he would seek to advance new construction in the strategic E1 corridor. Plans to bolster Israeli presence in E1 have been staunchly opposed by the US and wider international community, and PM Netanyahu will need to weigh the support of his far-right, ultra-nationalist coalition partners against foreign policy considerations.

“This is a time of transition and government ministers are testing the limits of their new authority and positions, some of which have yet to be clearly delineated. Specifically with regards to West Bank construction policy, the past month has shown that the government does not have a carte blanche to promote settlement expansion or establish new outposts. At least not yet. This leaves some key figures in the government with a reputational deficit to their far-right constituencies – and they can make up for it through hardline measures against Palestinians,” says Geneva Initiative Deputy Director Tehila Wenger.


To compensate, Israel has ramped up demolitions across the West Bank and East Jerusalem, with at least 129 Palestinian structures razed this month, according to OCHA. Analysts say that such moves only fuel Palestinian anger, contributing to a confrontational atmosphere and perpetuating a cycle of violence that is increasingly supported on a broader scale among the Palestinian public.

Provocations at Jerusalem’s Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif:

Provocations at the sensitive Temple Mount/Haram al Sharif holy site this month also underscored the volatility of East Jerusalem, and its potential to ignite the West Bank and wider region in response to real or perceived changes to the Status Quo. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s visit to Temple Mount/Haram al Sharif this month was viewed as particularly inflammatory given his past advocacy for allowing Jewish prayer at the site. 


Though the visit ended largely without incident, it was roundly condemned by the international community, which warned of the potential to exacerbate tensions or ignite a full-scale escalation. Emboldened by the far-right leader’s visit, Israeli nationalists were filmed dancing, waving Israeli flags, and singing the Israeli national anthem at the site later in the month, forecasting the potential for broader clashes at the site as the overlapping Passover, Easter, and Ramadan holidays approach. 

The TSI’s “Palestinian Statebuilding – Economic Stability” parameter drops from 5 to 4/10 this month, as punishing Israeli sanctions compound the PA’s financial woes. The Integrity of Palestinian Governance parameter remains unchanged at 2/10. The TSI’s Israeli and Palestinian Public Discourse parameters both rise from 4 to 5/10. The Palestinian Attacks (West Bank) and Israeli Settler Attacks parameter hold steady at 8/10.

 

 

Israelis Mobilize Against Damaging Policies, But Only 40% View Occupation as Harmful

Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have mobilized and taken to the streets in opposition of the new Israeli government, with weekly rallies in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, Herzilya, Modi’in, Beersheba, and elsewhere drawing a broad spectrum of protesters from the left, center, right and even ultra-Orthodox sectors. 

Ideologically diverse protesters have found a common cause in opposing the new government’s proposed judicial reforms – viewing them not only as a threat to Israeli democracy and civil rights, but also to the trajectory of the occupation. Israel’s High Court of Justice is widely viewed as the only institutional hurdle that PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s government faces to realizing its stated policy of de facto annexation. The court, which reviews the actions of all of Israel’s executive branches – including the military – has often been the only avenue of recourse for Palestinians seeking legal protections against illegal expropriation of their private property. 


Meanwhile, amid a renewed push by the Palestinian Authority to bring the issue of Israeli occupation before various international forums, critics and analysts have also warned that stripping the court of its authority will diminish Israel’s capacity to defend itself against international tribunals, which are typically only used in places where there is no independent judiciary.

Though the proposed judicial reforms have clear and practical implications on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, vocal opposition to the occupation and damaging government policies vis-à-vis settlements and the Palestinians have been relatively low-key in the protest movement, as Israel's fragmented opposition seeks to unify. 

The results of a joint Israeli-Palestinian public opinion poll published this month found that only 40% of Israeli Jews believe the occupation harms Israel. The survey, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and the International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University, also found that only 36% of Israeli Jews believe the occupation harms or greatly harms Palestinians, while 30% believe it doesn’t harm Palestinians at all. 


The poll also showed support for the two-state solution plummeting from 43% in September 2020 to just 33% among Palestinians and 34% for Israelis – the lowest levels recorded since the joint poll was first published in the early 2000’s. The pollsters pointed to a number of factors, including the significant rise in armed confrontations and killings of Palestinians in the West Bank and the rise of the far-right in Israel, as contributing to a hardening of attitudes, as well as an overwhelming sense of distrust and moral entitlement on both sides.

The poll found that 86% of Palestinians and 85% of Israeli Jews believe the other side is not trustworthy, that 84% of both Palestinians and Israeli Jews perceive themselves to be the exclusive victim of the conflict, and that 93% of both groups see themselves as rightful owners of the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan river. These attitudes were correlated with low support for reconciliation and low support for joint solutions, the survey found.

Still, a public opinion survey published this month by the Geneva Initiative found that a majority of 55% of the Israeli public is actually in favor of reconciliatory steps such as a meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Chairman of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas, and that 53% of Israelis support the new government opening political negotiations with the Palestinian Authority.

No changes are recorded to the TSI’s Israeli or Public Opinion parameters, which remain at 3/10 respectively.

 

 

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.

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