2023: The Dangers Ahead
Dear Friends,

As we usher in a new year, the Two State Index is at an all-time-low. The new Israeli government has expressed its intention to govern according to policies that will entrench de-facto annexation. The challenges we face in 2023 are substantial, and it is crucial that we stand together in solidarity to safeguard the rapidly diminishing political horizon for a two-state solution, to combat divisive rhetoric and destructive policies, and ensure a future of security, dignity, and peace for both Palestinians and Israelis. 

The Two State Index fell -9.1% in December, from 5.48 to 4.98 – the lowest value recorded since the TSI began. Scroll through the headlines below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution.

 

 

December at a Glance:


  • Year In Review: At end of 2022, Two State Index at All-Time Low. Why 2022 stands out as a year that emboldened, legitimized, and empowered Israel’s ultra-nationalist far-right

  • The Devil is in the Details: Coalition Agreements Allow Far-Right Ministers to Pursue Policy of De-Facto Annexation. Fmr. Head of West Bank Civil Administration Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Ilan Paz on the damage in appointing an independent minister to oversee Defense Ministry bodies 

  • Aggressive Israeli Response to UN Weakens Israel’s International Standing More than ICJ Vote Result Itself: President of Mitvim Institute & Sr. Middle East Institute Fellow Dr. Nimrod Goren on what Israel's reaction to UN vote forecasts for the international stage

  • Facing Hostile Israeli Policies, Palestinian Support for Two State Solution Falls and Support for Armed Resistance Rises: Anxieties about  policies of incoming Israeli gov't reflected in hardening Palestinian attitudes

  • Netanyahu Seeks to Leverage West Bank Annexation for Saudi Normalization Deal: What UAE officials' meetings with Israeli hardliners says about the trajectory of regional relations

These events decreased the Two State Index by -9.1% in December (down 0.5 points from 5.48 to 4.98)

 

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Year In Review: At End of 2022, Two State Index at All-Time Low

In just twelve short months, the Two State Index has recorded both an all-time high and all-time low.
 
During the first half of the year, the former Bennett-Lapid government made substantial efforts to stabilize and improve the economic realities of Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: An nprecedented number of permits were issued for Gazan workers, among other positive economic confidence building measures that accompanied frequent high-level engagement between Israeli and Palestinian officials. In September, the TSI rose to an all-time high when former PM Yair Lapid used his speech at the UN to espouse support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the first such announcement by an Israeli premier in years.

But cautious progress was stymied by spiraling violence throughout the year. A limited escalation between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad resulted in thousands of rockets fired at Israel and 53 Palestinians killed in Gaza. A surge in Palestinian attacks killed 31 Israeli civilians, soldiers, and internationals, prompting Israel to launch an intensive military crackdown that resulted in 182 Palestinian casualties – making 2022 the deadliest year in the West Bank since the end of the Second Intifada.


Israeli settlers clashed frequently with Palestinians at flashpoints across the West Bank and East Jerusalem, while a surge in Jewish visitors and changing norms at Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif pointed to a creeping erosion of the status quo. Meanwhile, violence between extremist Jewish nationalists, Israeli security forces, and left-wing Israeli activists underscored the bitter divisions that permeated political and societal discourse in the lead up to November’s national elections in Israel.

Ultimately, 2022 stands out as a year that emboldened, legitimized, and empowered Israel’s once-fringe ultra-nationalist far-right. The year ends with the TSI at a record-low, as Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returns to power backed by a coalition of far-right, ultra-nationalist, and ultra-Orthodox parties who have vowed to govern according to a doctrine of Jewish supremacy and pursue a policy of de-facto annexation.

The TSI’s 2022 “Year in Review” tracks milestones from over the previous year:

 

 

The Devil is in the Details: Coalition Agreements Allow Far-Right Ministers to Pursue Policy of De-Facto Annexation

Benjamin Netanyahu returned to power in December at the helm of Israel’s most right-wing government in history, committing to a policy of de-facto annexation of the West Bank. Netanyahu has attempted to downplay the practical implications of the fundamental position taken by the governing coalition to promote “a policy by which sovereignty will be applied in [the West Bank]” with carefully crafted caveats that such measures will “[take] into consideration the timing and Israel’s national and international interests.”

But the devil is in the details, and Netanyahu’s agreements with his coalition partners – particularly Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right, ultra-nationalist Religious Zionism party – point to an irreversible deepening of the occupation and dispossession of Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem that cannot be mistaken for anything less than annexation.

In addition to allowing for the return to previously evacuated settlements, legalizing some 70 illegal settlement outposts, and allocating NIS 1.6 billion ($450 million) per year to build roads and expand services and infrastructure for settlement blocs, the move hands an ideologically hard-right government minister independent oversight of the Defense Ministry's Civil Administration and COGAT, which is particularily concerning as it has implications for the priorities and authority of the Israeli institutions most involved in West Bank policies.


On top of this, the agreement includes a commitment to amend a government resolution requiring the Defense Minister to authorize the allocation of land for West Bank construction and the convening of the committee responsible for authorizing construction plans in the territory, enabling Smotrich to pursue his goals with little constraints. 

It is important to note, however, that the majority of these measures are not binding until they are translated into formal government decisions or legislation. As such, it is critical that pro-peace voices in the public, in civil society, and in the international community push back vehemently against destructive clauses during the crucial first weeks and months of the government's establishment to prevent them from being enacted into law.

“Netanyahu is in a position of extortion for the sake of his government. The direct oversight of military units by political actors with their own ideological agendas is a guarantee that they will be able to carry out the policies they agreed on without Netanyahu being able to prevent many of their actions on the ground,” says Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Ilan Paz, former Head of the West Bank Civil Administration.

“There is a reason why Israeli government ministers have never had authority over West Bank-related issues. Under Israeli and international law, Israel is not the sovereign in these territories – the IDF is. As far as the international community is concerned, the transfer of responsibility over West Bank affairs to other government ministers (other than the Defense Minister) amounts to de-facto annexation,” Paz adds.


The appointment of Smotrich as an independent supervisor of Defense Ministry bodies involved in security coordination with the PA, as well as civilian affairs in the Gaza Strip, also puts Israel in a challenging position in terms of both domestic security and international law. 

“Before serving settlers and settlements, COGAT is responsible for dealing with Palestinian civil affairs and security coordination with the PA. The chain of command will be severely damaged by this appointment. If the chain of command is split between different ministers, and there is no one commander and a rational hierarchy or coordinated strategic approach, it will create chaos,” Paz says.

The PA has already raised alarms over the new government, warning that its policies pose an “existential threat” to the Palestinian people. “The Palestinian Authority faces a major dilemma,” adds analyst Mohammed Daraghmeh. “The PA certainly can’t cooperate with this government, but at the same time they cannot boycott it. They need to maintain some level of cooperation for day-to-day issues.”

PA President Mahmoud Abbas has acknowledged as much, and has appealed to the international community to boycott Israel’s new government over its hardline, right-wing agenda. While it remains to be seen how the international community will respond, US President Joe Biden has already warned that Washington will oppose policies that endanger the viability of the two state solution – setting the US and Israel on track for a number of potential clashes over issues central to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including settlement expansion and regulation, law and order in the West Bank, and the fragile status quo in East Jerusalem.

The Israeli Government and Israeli Legislature parameters both drop from 3 to 2 this month, and the reverse-scale Israeli law in the West Bank parameter rises from 6 to 8 reflecting concerted efforts toward annexation of the West Bank by means of major annexation bills and the forecasted systematic application of Israeli law over areas of Israeli settlements. The reverse-scale Settlement Planning parameter also drops from 6 to 4, while the Israeli public discourse drops from 7 to 4 (equal to Palestinian public discourse) and Israeli public opinion drops from 4 to 3.

The composition of the incoming government and its foundational policies also lead to a change in the TSI’s “Solvability of Core Issues” parameters, with the Borders parameter falling from 6 to 4, the Status of Jerusalem dropping from 5 to 4, and Recognition/Narrative/Reconciliation dropping from 4 to 3.

 

 

Aggressive Israeli Response to UN Weakens Israel’s International Standing More than ICJ Vote Result Itself

The UN General Assembly voted in favor of seeking an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice on the legality of Israel's occupation of the West Bank, drawing a fiery Israeli response that forecasts the diplomatic tone that can be expected of Netanyahu’s new hardline government in international fora. 

The resolution calling for the ICJ to render an advisory opinion on the legality of the Israeli occupation of the West Bank as well as its policies in East Jerusalem passed by a vote of 87-26, with 53 abstentions. The resolution paves the way for an ICJ probe into whether Israel’s occupation of the West Bank is a temporary reality to be resolved via negotiations with the Palestinians – as Israel maintains – or whether after 56 years it is a permanent (and therefore illegal) situation, as well as the potential legal consequences in the international community.

Analysts note that while the proposal was passed with a smaller margin of support than is typical, a notable number of European countries and other Israeli allies either voted against the Israeli position or abstained, including France, Brazil, Denmark, Finland, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland.


“The recent vote at the UN General Assembly reflected once again that the international community - in general - does not accept the Israeli narrative regarding the Palestinian issue. It also highlights that the Palestinian issue - while not being a top priority on the global agenda - is still one of concern to many in the international community. Most countries are not motivated to translate this concern into action, but casting votes in the UN can catalyze processes which will later result in concrete policy implications,” says Dr. Nimrod Goren, President of the Mitvim Institute and Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute.

The vote was held just days after Israel’s new government took power and foreshadows the likelihood of further clashes at the UN and in the international arena as Israel pursues a declared policy of extending sovereignty in the West Bank. 

“Countries and international organizations that were willing to give a chance to the Lapid-Bennett government and refrained from excessive criticism of its policies regarding the Palestinian issue, are not willing to do so in the context of the new government. The UN vote showed that countries, which are aligned with Israel on multiple issues, may vote against the Israeli position when the Palestinian issue is on the line in international fora,” Goren says.

Israel’s aggressive response to the vote may actually cause more harm to its international standing that the UN vote itself, Goren says, noting that UN votes are often symbolic in nature and do not always truly represent a country's foreign policy positions. 

“The Israeli response to the UN vote was aggressive and reflected a comeback of the rhetoric used by previous Netanyahu governments - labelling criticism of Israeli policies as anti-Israeli, supportive of terror and boycotts, and de-legitimizing Israel. Such Israeli rhetoric lessens the space for dialogue with legitimate critics on actual policy differences that exist. By doing so, it weakens Israel's global standing rather than reinforces it,” he adds.

No changes are recorded to relevant TSI parameters.

 

 

Facing Hostile Israeli Policies, Palestinian Support for Two State Solution Falls and Support for Armed Resistance Rises

Palestinian support for the two-state solution fell significantly in the wake of national elections in Israel, with support for the concept dropping to 32% (down five points from 37% in September) according to the results of the latest poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR). 

A majority of 69% of Palestinians polled believe that the two-state solution is no longer practical or feasible due to the expansion of Israeli settlements (up from 64% three months ago), with an equal proportion of respondents expecting that the incoming Israeli government will annex Israeli settlement blocs in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, or the entire Jordan Valley.

Anxieties about the policies of the incoming Israeli government are reflected in polling indicating that an overwhelming majority of Palestinians (72%) believe that the prospects for the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside the State of Israel in the next five years are slim or nonexistent, while 67% of Palestinians are less optimistic about the prospects of an improvement in Palestinian-Israeli relations (such as new confidence building measures or limiting settlement expansions) over the next year. 


Palestinian analysts say that these results reflect a hardening of Palestinian public attitudes and signal less willingness to compromise with what they see as a hostile Israeli government promoting irreparably damaging policies. 

Indeed, support for economic confidence building measures dropped from 69% three months ago to 57% last month, while support for a return to armed conflict rose significantly – jumping from 41% in September to 51% in December. More than 70% of respondents support the formation of more armed militias like as the Nablus-based “Lion’s Den” which has engaged in increasingly violent clashes with Israeli security forces over the past several months.

“The composition of the new Israeli government could be a turning point in the Palestinian public’s perception of the two-state solution, with the potential for galvanizing support for new means of pursuing Palestinian national aspirations,” says analyst Mohammed Daraghmeh.

The TSI’s Palestinian Public Discourse and Palestinian Public Opinion parameters both drop one point, to 4 and 3 respectively.

 

 

Netanyahu Seeks to Leverage West Bank Annexation for Saudi Normalization Deal

The prospect of an Israel-Saudi normalization agreement could temper the ambitions of far-right elements in PM Benjamin Netayahu’s governing coalition to annex the West Bank and pursue other policy steps that would inflame the Arab world – at least in the short-term. 

Multiple Israeli officials have indicated over the past month that the groundwork for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia has been laid, with Netanyahu stating in an interview with Saudi publication Al Arabiya that such an agreement could also serve as a “quantum leap” for kickstarting long-moribund peace talks with the Palestinians.

While Netanyahu appears to have left himself room to maneuver the agendas of his far-right coalition partners while overtures are made to Saudi Arabia, Riyadh has been reluctant to join the US-led Abraham Accords, insisting that a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians would be a pre-requisite for any normalization agreement. As the leader of the Muslim world and capital of Islamic holy places, solidarity with the Palestinian cause is an important political consideration for Saudi Arabia. 


“The Israeli political earthquake changes all the rules. Annexation is a core element in the new government’s platform and will start soon on the ground. Palestinians must find solidarity with Arab countries and the international community,” says senior Palestinian official Jibril Rajoub.

The PA has repeatedly rejected US and Israeli initiatives bringing together Israel and Arab allies and has sought more solidarity with Arab partners as Washington advances a policy of Middle East cooperation decoupled from the Palestinian cause. 

While Abraham Accords signatories have continued to support the Palestinians and promote the two-state solution in international forums, meetings between Emirati officials and hardline ultra-nationalist MKs Itamar Ben Gvir and Betzalel Smotrich this month legitimized the most far-right elements of the incoming government and signaled that regional rapprochement between Israel and Gulf Allies will continue to move forward – with or without the Palestinians.

The TSI’s Arab World parameter drops from 7 to 6 this month, with regional normalization decoupled from progress on Israeli-Palestinian peace talks further isolating the Palestinian cause from other regional interests and on the international stage.

 

 

Other Headlines:

  • Hundreds of Thousands Rally in Gaza to Mark 58 Years of Fatah: Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians attended a rally in the Gaza Strip this month marking the 58th anniversary of the founding of Fatah in a rare show of support for the group in the Hamas-run territory. The rally marked a rare concession on the part of Hamas which has frequently restricted Fatah activities, and large turnout was seen as an expression of Gazans’ discontent with Hamas, which remains overwhelmingly more popular than Fatah in polls. The Fatah rally was held just weeks after hundreds of thousands of Gazans rallied to mark the 35th anniversary of the founding of Hamas. During the rally, Hamas leaders predicted an “open confrontation” with Israel in the coming year – but otherwise subdued its usual anti-Israel rhetoric as it seeks to maintain economic benefits that are crucial for maintaining day-to-day stability in the Strip. 

  • Palestinian Prisoner Dies of Cancer in Israeli Custody: Palestinian prisoner Nasser Abu Hmaid died in Israeli custody this month, after being diagnosed with a rapidly spreading cancer last August. Palestinian activists and human rights groups had long called for Abu Hmaid to be released from prison on medical grounds, accusing Israel of medical negligence on account of his late diagnosis. Abu Hmaid’s death sparked protests in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, while Israel insists that Abu Hamid received proper care.

 

 

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.

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