The Road to Peace: Top – Down! Bottom – Up?
Dear Friends,

Over the last month, we have followed the expected rise to power of an unprecedentedly far-right, anti-peace government in Israel with deep concern. With the diplomatic horizon between Israelis and Palestinians diminishing rapidly, the focus of the international community and civil society must now turn to safeguarding the future of the two-state solution by preventing harmful policy steps on the ground, countering incitement and divisive rhetoric, and protecting the security, rights and freedom of Israelis and Palestinians.
 
The Two State Index fell -3.6% in November, from 5.68 to 5.48. See below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution.

 

 

November at a Glance:


  • Key Issues to Follow as Netanyahu Returns to Power Bolstered by Far-Right, Ultranationalist Parties: How Israel's new government will impact Settlement Expansion & Outpost Legalization, Developments in E1 & E2, Law and Order in the West Bank & Israel, and the Erosion of the Status Quo in East Jerusalem

  • With Eye Towards New Israeli Gov’t, US Signals It Won’t Deliver Progress on Peace: Why Palestinians view Hady Amr's appointment to Special Representative for Palestinian Affairs as a downgrade, not an upgrade

  • Stirred by Inflammatory Political Rhetoric, Deadly Violence in West Bank & Jerusalem Reaches New Heights: Events in Hebron underscore creeping influence of far-right actors and increasing politicization of IDF soldiers on the ground

  • Permanence of Israeli Occupation Will Be at Heart of Debate as UN Seeks International Court Opinion: After 55 years of settlement growth, can we really argue the occupation is temporary as demanded by the 4th Geneva Convention?

The Two State Index fell -3.6% in November, from 5.68 to 5.48.

 

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Key Issues to Follow as Netanyahu Returns to Power Bolstered by Far-Right, Ultranationalist Parties

Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to return to power backed by far-right, ultra-nationalist, and ultra-Orthodox parties – an anticipated coalition that is expected to form Israel’s most right-wing government to date. Several of Netanyahu’s coalition partners have long espoused Jewish supremacist rhetoric and support policy steps that would deepen Israel’s occupation and further diminish the prospect of the two-state solution. 

“The peace camp has a very limited political representation in Knesset, and none in the upcoming government. The most significant political voices supporting the two-state solution and opposing the occupation are no longer in decision-making positions. This means that Israeli civil society will now be on the front lines of countering harmful discourse and incitement, and pushing back against dangerous policies,” says Geneva Initiative Deputy Director Tehila Wenger.


As coalition talks continue, it is clear that ultranationalist politicians are likely to serve in core governmental cabinets dealing with security and foreign policy issues and will likely try to exert their influence beyond whichever portfolios they are ultimately assigned. This is expected to have significant implications on issues central to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including settlement expansion and regulation, law and order in the West Bank and in relation to Palestinian citizens of Israel, as well as on the fragile status quo in East Jerusalem.

"Netanyahu, we know from the past, is generally pragmatic and risk-averse. But the upcoming government will contain ideological actors that will try to pass extremist laws and policies, in the West Bank or even on the Temple Mount. There will be difficult negotiations between these two sides of the government. Netanyahu is not stupid - he knows what the consequences are for annexation or changing the status quo. We will see who wins, the more pragmatic parties or the extreme ideological actors," says Minister Nitzan Horowitz.

Here are four key issues to follow as the composition of the next Israeli government is finalized:

1. Settlement Expansion and Outpost Legalization: Two goals at the core of the far-right platform vis-a-vis the West Bank are legalizing some 100 unauthorized Israeli settlement outposts in the West Bank and diminishing Palestinian presence Area C. Watch for agreements on the formal regulation of outposts, including the flashpoint Homesh yeshiva and Evyatar outpost – both of which have become symbolic rallying points for settler activists. There is also likely to be a significant increase in budget allocations for settlement construction and infrastructure development, including roads, highways, and public transportation in and around settlement blocs.


2. Developments in E1, E2, and Khan al-Ahmar: It’s worth paying attention specifically to developments in the contentious E1 and E2 areas. Plans to resume settlement construction in both sites would ostensibly sever the territorial contiguity of the West Bankand prevent the economic and social development of a future Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Watch also for the dismantling of the Bedouin village of Khan al-Ahmar in the area, as well as for broader evictions and demolitions of Palestinian structures elsewhere in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

3. Law and Order in the West Bank, Israel: Controversial Jewish Power leader Itamar Ben-Gvir is set to be appointed the head of a new National Security Ministry – an expanded public security minister role that includes oversight of the national police and Border Police, forecasting a potential increase in points of friction with Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, as well as with Palestinian citizens of Israel. Watch for policy changes and judicial reforms that could increase political control over various public authorities, as well as for how security forces’ engagement with Palestinian protesters, settlers, and left-wing activists develops under the influence of Ben-Gvir’s leadership and rhetoric. 


4. Erosion of the Status Quo in East Jerusalem: A number of Netanyahu’s incoming coalition partners support allowing Jewish prayer on Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif compound, in violation of the fragile status quo. Watch for increasing activism promoting Jewish visitation to Temple Mount and increasingly lax police enforcement against Jewish prayer at the site (see above). On the other hand, Netanyahu may attempt to restrain and placate ideological actors on matters pertaining to the status quo, in order to avoid instigating violent backlash over this flashpoint issue.


Though Netanyahu has expressed support for a two-state solution in the past, his commitment to peace with the Palestinians has waned steadily over the years and Netanyahu has not expressed public support for the two-state solution since at least 2017. Over the past month, Netanyahu has pledged to work for “peace out of strength” and to promote peace with additional Arab states (without acknowledging the Palestinians specifically), while claiming that Palestinians “don’t want a state next to Israel, they want a state instead of Israel.” 

The Israeli PM parameter falls from 6 to 3. The Israeli government and Israeli legislature parameters both also drop from 6 to 3, with possible further decreases subject to the finalization of coalition negotiations. The Israeli public opinion and Palestinian public opinion parameters also both fall from 5 to 4 this month as a reflection of the election results.

 

 

With Eye Towards New Israeli Gov’t, US Signals It Won’t Deliver Progress on Peace

The United States is watching carefully as Prime Minister-elect Benjamin Netanyahu assembles a new government. The anticipated appointment of far-right settler leaders to top security and policy portfolios could potentially set the US and Israel on a crash course over key issues such as settlements and relations with the Palestinians.

While US President Joe Biden and his administration have so far publicly reserved judgement pending the new coalition's final formation, the results of US midterm elections this month – in which the Democrats retained their Senate majority – foretells that the Biden administration will likely face significant in-party pressure to challenge damaging Israeli steps vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority and West Bank policy. 


The announcement this month that the FBI will open its own independent probe into the death of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, for example, came as a result of a pressure campaign spearheaded by Democratic members of Congress. This could foreshadow additional critical measures as US Democrats watch Israel assemble an unprecedentedly right-wing government.

The Biden administration has continued to signal that it will not pursue diplomatic initiatives between Israel and the Palestinians and will focus instead on improving the daily lives of Palestinians. Though the appointment of senior State Department official Hady Amr to a newly-created role dealing exclusively with Palestinian affairs was framed as an upgrade in US-Palestinian relations, the move informally signaled that the US will not make good on its promise to re-open the US Consulate in Jerusalem and that the Biden administration will not push for diplomatic steps towards negotiations. 

“We realize that the current US administration has no intention of intervening in the conflict; it’s not their priority… But the only one who can put pressure on Israel for peace is the US. It’s not that the US can’t apply this pressure, it’s that the US doesn’t want to,” says Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh.

“Appointing Hady Amr as a US representative to Palestinian Affairs could be considered a downgrade, not an upgrade. He formerly oversaw communications with both the Palestinians and the Israelis. This new appointment – we know, the Americans know, and the Israelis know – signals that the US cannot deliver progress on peace,” adds Sameh Al-Abed, former PA minister and acting co-chair of the Geneva Initiative.

The TSI’s International Actors – United States parameter falls from 7 to 6 this month.

 

 

Stirred by Inflammatory Political Rhetoric, Deadly Violence in West Bank & Jerusalem Reaches New Heights 

Months of spiraling violence reached new heights in November, with bombings at two West Jerusalem bus stations killing two Israeli civilians in attacks reminiscent of the hallmark bus bombings of the Second Intifada. Meanwhile, Israel’s harsh military crackdown continued with near-nightly raids and deadly clashes resulting in numerous Palestinian casualties across the West Bank this month. 

Emboldened by inflammatory political rhetoric, Israeli settler attacks targeting Palestinians and left-wing Israeli activists also continued, with violence reaching shocking levels in Hebron. Some 30,000 Israeli settlers wreaked havoc on Palestinian civilians and property as they descended on the city for an annual pilgrimage under the protection of the Israeli military, which enforced harsh restrictions on Palestinian movement and commercial activity in order to allow the march to proceed.

In a separate incident, an Israeli soldier’s brutal assault on a left-wing activist in Hebron underscored the creeping influence of extreme right-wing actors and the increasing politicization of IDF soldiers on the ground, as army forces are increasingly implicated in, or turn a blind eye to, such attacks. 


“With Ben-Gvir on top of the new Ministry of National Security, Palestinians can expect only more violence. Ben-Gvir insisted on this portfolio to implement his platform and boost his popularity by attacking Palestinians, building more settlements, and legalizing settlements outpost…The Palestinians will not stay silent and will continue to stand up to these practices,” says analyst Mohammed Dahleh.

Figures published by the IDF this month indicate a sharp rise in Palestinian attacks against Israeli security forces and citizens this year, as well as a nearly two-fold increase in nationalist crimes by Jews targeting Palestinians since last year. The surge in attacks and violence has claimed the lives of at least 150 Palestinians and 30 Israelis since the beginning of the year – putting 2022 on track to be the deadliest year in the West Bank in nearly a decade. 

No changes are recorded to relevant TSI parameters this month.

 

 

Permanence of Israeli Occupation Will Be at Heart of Debate as UN Seeks International Court Opinion

The UN General Assembly is expected to vote next month on whether to ask the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to provide an opinion on the legal status of the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, after a lower committee voted in favor of the move. Should the ICJ be asked to examine the issue, one major point of debate will be the expansiveness of the Israeli settlement enterprise as a clear indicator of the permanence of the occupation.
 
In 2004, the ICJ issued an opinion unanimously stating that the 4th Geneva Convention applies in all areas of Israeli occupation, and accordingly, declaring all Israeli settlements illegal under international law on the grounds that it is forbidden for an occupying power to transfer its own citizens to occupied territory. While Israel has maintained that the occupation is temporary, settlement construction has continued, and the development of civil life and infrastructure has further entrenched Israel’s presence and governance in the territory. Current political developments are expected to see an unprecedented allocation of Israel’s state budget to the development of settlements, as well as potentially expand civil authority in the West Bank – also in violation of the 4th Geneva Convention.

“For 55 years Israel has been transferring its citizens to occupied territory and developing civil life, infrastructure, and governance there. Israeli citizens are living their entire lives in occupied territory. Can we still say that the occupation  is temporary as the Convention demands? This question will be examined thoroughly and is likely to harm the idea that the occupation is still legal,” says Advocate Talia Sasson, a former senior official in Israel’s Ministry of Justice.


If the ICJ were to deliver an opinion declaring the occupation to be illegal, it could open Israel up to a range of possible consequences:

“It could bring Israel into the territory of international sanctions. There could also be states that try to elevate it to the International Criminal Court. But the consequences need not be so dramatic, either. Individual states could independently pursue measures such as expanded visa requirements, economic boycotts, targeted sanctions, and more,” Sasson says.

“There are thousands of ways for the international community to explain to Israel that the situation is not acceptable. We need to look forward and ask ourselves what are the risks we are willing to take and what are the consequences we are willing to accept.”

A missive sent to more than 50 heads of state by outgoing Israeli PM Yair Lapid urged allies to dissuade the Palestinians from moving forward in their effort to refer the matter to the ICJ, decrying the move as counterproductive to the principle of direct negotiations. But with neither Israel nor the US signaling any prospect for meaningful progress on the matter, Palestinians are increasingly turning to the wider international community, and particularly the UN and UN institutions, as a forum for remedy and redress.

No changes are recorded to relevant TSI parameters this month. 

 

 

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the  Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective. 

Think we missed something this month? Send us tips and comments here.

 

 

 

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