Voting in the Midst of Violence
Dear Friends,

Though Israel's election results indicate the return of a right-wing government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, the outcome of the November 1 vote is not included in the current TSI for October. With significant gains by far-right parties threatening to further diminish the diplomatic horizon for peace, it is more important than ever that the international community actively reaffirm its position that a two-state solution is the only way to ensure security, prosperity, and peace for both Israelis and Palestinians.

The Two State Index fell -0.70% in October to 5.68. Click on the headlines below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution and keep an eye out for next month’s TSI for analysis on final election results.

 

 

October at a Glance:


  • Surge in West Bank Violence Reflects Palestinian Frustration, Hopelessness at Lack of Diplomatic Progress: "Anyone who views the solution for reducing West Bank violence only through the scope of a rifle does not fully understand the conflict,” says Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Ilan Paz, former Head of the West Bank Civil Administration.

  • Settler Attacks Target Both Palestinians and Israelis as Far-Right Wields Violence for Political Influence: “The surge in violent attacks against Palestinian civilians and property is not only morally wrong, but it creates a real security risk for Israel,” says Israeli activist Yariv Oppenheimer. 

  • Other Developments: Israeli Restrictions on Foreigner Visits to West Bank Take Effect; US National Security Strategy Elevates Mideast Peace, Two-State Solution; UN Report says Israel 'persecutes' Palestinians; and Australia walks back recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.


These events decreased the Two State Index by -0.70% in October (down 0.1 point from 5.73 to 5.68)


 

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Surge in West Bank Violence Reflects Palestinian Frustration, Hopelessness at Lack of Diplomatic Progress

A staggering rise in violence across the West Bank highlights the flawed assumption that Israel can quell a surge in attacks by force, without taking meaningful steps on the diplomatic front. Israel’s unprecedented military crackdown across the West Bank has stoked Palestinian frustration, desperation, and hopelessness, fueling increasingly violent clashes in and around strongholds such as Nablus, Hebron, and Jenin where the Palestinian Authority is already struggling to maintain control. 

The emergence of loosely-organized militias such as the Nablus-based “Lion’s Den” group – which has attracted the support of mainly young, secular Palestinians with varied political affiliations – reflects a deep frustration at the ineffectiveness of the Palestinian Authority as well as exasperation at the lack of a political/diplomatic horizon. And without any political progress, analysts say Israel’s ongoing military responses will only continue to fan the flames of the current conflict. 



“Israelis cannot allow the general perception among Palestinians to be that Israel only understands force as a means of bringing about achievements and/or progress. Anyone who views the solution for reducing West Bank violence only through the scope of a rifle does not fully understand the conflict,” says Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Ilan Paz, former Head of the West Bank Civil Administration. “Israel must create a horizon for future negotiations towards a peace agreement.”

But amid an uptick in Palestinian attacks targeting IDF soldiers and settlers – with fatal attacks in Shavei Shomron, East Jerusalem, and the Kyriat Arba settlement this month – Israel has responded even more forcefully. Thousands of Palestinians were placed under a suffocating lockdown in both Nablus and Shuafat this month, creating economic, transportation, and security challenges for Palestinian residents who decried the measures as “collective punishment”.

In Jerusalem, the lockdown sparked some of the fiercest and most widespread clashes the city has seen in years and brought the conflict to Israel’s back door: Movement was restricted within Jerusalem’s municipal borders through the lockdown of the city’s Shuafat neighborhood, impacting both Palestinian and Israeli citizens alike.


Meanwhile, Hamas has made no secret of the fact that it has provided financial and logistical support to “Lion’s Den” and other West Bank militants – capitalizing on tensions while maintaining the status quo on the Gazan front. And though President Mahmoud Abbas has made clear that he will not accept the activity of armed militias outside of the PA’s authority, Palestinian security officials have found it challenging to act against militants who in many cases come from within their own ranks and who claim to be acting in response to Israeli military incursions into their cities.

“If Israel puts – even as a far distant goal – a political agreement to end the conflict, the PA will strengthen as a result. But by sidelining the political issue, Israel has managed to weaken the PA to the benefit of Hamas and other militant groups in the West Bank,” Paz says.

Despite the increasing frequency and intensity of current confrontations, analysts say that a full-fledged uprising remains unlikely due to internal Palestinian political fractures and Israel’s general military supremacy. Opinion polls conducted by the Palestinian Peace Coalition (PPC) and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) also indicate that more than a third of Palestinians still prefer the two-state solution over any other resolution to the conflict. 

“There will be no full-fledged intifada unless Palestinians end their division and agree on a form of collective resistance, or unless a new resistance movement is born independent from current factions,” analyst Mohammed Daraghmeh says. “The relatively quick downfall of the Lion’s Den group exemplifies this and raises questions as to what forms of collective struggle can work in light of Israel’s military supremacy.”

With 2022 on track to be the deadliest year in the West Bank in 17 years, it is clear that unless Israelis and Palestinians take meaningful steps towards addressing core political issues, hostilities and tensions will continue to fuel a cycle of deadly violence from which it will become increasingly difficult to escape.

The reverse-scale Palestinian attacks (West Bank) parameter rises from 7 to 8 this month, reflecting that the increase in frequency and intensity of attacks enhances the urgency for a political response in order to break the cycle of violence. Amid an ongoing Israeli military crackdown that has seen near nightly raids, clashes, and thousands of Palestinians arrested in recent months, the TSI’s reverse-scale IDF Military actions (West Bank) remains steady at 8.

The Palestinian Public Opinion and Israeli Public Opinion parameters both fall from 6 to 5 this month. At the same time, the Israeli Public Discourse drops from 8 to 7, and the Palestinian Public Discourse drops from 6 to 5. The decreases are attributed to the surge in violence across the West Bank, taken against the backdrop of elections in Israel and greater shows of support for armed resistance among Palestinians.  The Security Coordination parameter also drops from 8 to 7 this month, with Israel’s ongoing military crackdown significantly undermining PA security forces and failing to calm spiraling tensions. 

 

 

Settler Attacks Target Both Palestinians and Israelis as Far-Right Wields Violence for Political Influence

Against the backdrop of the Jewish High Holiday period, the annual olive harvest and Israel’s national elections, a surge in settler attacks this month has only exacerbated an already explosive situation in the West Bank. Much of the tensions appear to be focused on the town of Huwara, close to Nablus, where loosely-organized armed Palestinian resistance has intensified in recent months. Settler activists have wielded recent violence to kindle fears that the situation is spiraling out of the army’s control, amid a 47% rise in shooting attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem over the past month. 

“The surge in violent attacks against Palestinian civilians and property is not only morally wrong, but it creates a real security risk for Israel,” says Israeli activist Yariv Oppenheimer. “Settler violence puts the Palestinians in a state of insecurity, fear, anger and humiliation. This is one of the reasons for the current rise in support for armed confrontations with Israeli soldiers and settlers.”


Israeli settlers this month have flocked to religious flashpoints including Joseph’s Tomb in Nablus, Tomb of the Patriarchs/Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron, and the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif compound in East Jerusalem, sparking clashes at the holy sites as Israeli settlers played music and danced and performed Jewish prayer rituals, while reports of desecrations of copies of the Quran infuriated both Palestinians and the wider Muslim world.

In addition, dozens of Palestinian civilians have been injured and Palestinian homes, cars, storefronts, and olive groves have been damaged in hundreds of incidents this month alone, with activists noting such attacks are no longer limited to a small group of Jewish extremists and increasingly involve a broader spectrum of participants.

“These incidents are not just perpetrated by Israeli youth full of hatred, and they are less spontaneous than they appear. They are well-planned and serve a specific political cause. By threatening and expelling Palestinians from their lands, by creating an atmosphere of fear and indignation, settlers are emboldened to expand into more territory and with new outposts,” Oppenheimer adds. 


And against the backdrop of Israel’s national elections, PM Lapid’s interim government – as with previous Israeli administrations – has taken little to no concrete action to rein in the settler-perpetrators. Only when Israeli soldiers were targeted by settler violence did Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz acknowledge the phenomenon. Meanwhile, hundreds of attacks targeting Palestinians and left-wing Israeli activists have continued largely unchecked.

The reverse-scale Settler Violence parameter remains unchanged this month at 8, with a steady rise in attacks on Palestinian civilians and property, Israeli left-wing activists, and IDF soldiers over recent months fueling tensions across the West Bank and sowing divisiveness ahead of elections.

 

 

Other Developments:

  • Israeli Restrictions on Foreigner Visits to West Bank Take Effect: New Israeli regulations on foreign visits to the West Bank came into effect this month, limiting, in many cases, the time frame most foreigners can stay in the Palestinian territory. Opponents of the new guidelines – including the US – are concerned that the restrictions will pose an issue for family unification in situations where foreigners are married to Palestinians in the West Bank but have not been granted residency status, as well as making it difficult for academics and entrepreneurs to develop long-term projects and relationships with Palestinians, thus adversely affecting civil society, tourism, health care, academia, and commerce. The TSI’s reverse-scale Israeli Law in the West Bank parameter rises from 7 to 8 in response to the new systematic application of Israeli regulations in the Palestinian territory.

  • Latest US National Security Strategy Elevates Mideast Peace, Two-State Solution: US President Joe Biden’s 2022 National Security Strategy expresses Washington’s intention to further promote Abraham Accords-style peace agreements between Israel and its regional neighbors, as well as to advance a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The 2022 document included more detail on the region than last year’s, signaling that the issue has been elevated among US national security concerns and policies. The TSI’s United States parameter remains unchanged at 7.

  • Israel 'persecutes' Palestinian people, new UN report says: Israel’s actions against Palestinians in the West Bank amount to “persecution”, according to a report issued this month by Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in the Palestinian Territories. Meanwhile, the second report issued to the UN General Assembly by the Human Rights Council’s Commission of Inquiry (COI) declared Israel's occupation of Palestinian territory unlawful under international law and appealed to the International Court of Justice to issue its opinion on the matter. Both the US and Israel condemned the report’s findings, singling out the open-ended nature of the COI’s mandate as particularly polarizing and problematic. The TSI’s International Decisions & Norms parameter remains unchanged at 8.

  • Australia walks back recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital: Australia’s Cabinet agreed to revert to its previous recognition of Tel Aviv as the capital of Israel, re-affirming that Jerusalem’s status must be resolved in peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. The decision was welcomed by the Palestinians and their allies, while drawing harsh condemnation from Israel. The TSI’s Other International Actors parameter remains unchanged at 7.

 

 

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.

Think we missed something this month? Send us tips and comments here.

 

 

 

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