On the Brink: Elections, Escalation, Engagement
Dear Friends,

This month, both Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas expressed their support for and desire to advance a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The fact that, for the first time in years, both the Israeli and Palestinian leadership have used global platforms to call for peace is a promising development. But events on the ground – including mounting violence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem – are in stark contrast to these aspirations and the international community must ensure that Israelis and Palestinians continue to take positive steps towards peace.

The Two State Index rises +1.4% in September to 5.73. Click on the headlines below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution.

 

 

September at a Glance:


  • With Palestinian Issue Taking Center Stage in Israeli Election, Lapid Sees Jump in Approval Following UN Speech: Lapid’s speech indicates a political calculus in which declaring support for a two-state solution is linked to mobilizing crucial electoral support at home.

  • A Recipe for Disaster - West Bank on Brink Amid PA Power Vacuum, Mounting Resistance to Israeli Crackdown: Clashes with PA security forces in Nablus underscore conflicting pressures in West Bank arena.

  • After Lapid’s UN Speech, Israeli and Palestinian Public Opinion Mixed on Two-State Solution: Despite rise in support, only 32% of Palestinians believe the two-state solution remains feasible. 

  • Jewish Visits to Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif Reach Record Highs Amid Clashes: Hamas threatens violence over holiday visits as it seeks to capitalize on Jerusalem tensions to strengthen West Bank influence. 

  • Israel Advances Plans for 700 Settlement Units Under Givat Shaked Plan: Controversial plan adjacent to Green Line pins Palestinian neighborhood of Beit Safafa on all sides.

These events increased the Two State Index by +1.4 % in September (up 0.08 points from 5.65 to 5.73)


 

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With Palestinian Issue Taking Center Stage in Israeli Election, Lapid Sees Jump in Approval Following UN Speech

Prime Minister Yair Lapid used his speech at the United Nations General Assembly this month to espouse support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a move that was lauded by the international community and welcomed cautiously PA President Mahmoud Abbas as a “positive development”. 

Though Lapid’s speech contained similar messages delivered in 2016 by former PM Benjamin Netanyahu, this time the Israeli public and many in the international arena actually believe in the authenticity of the Israeli leader’s proclamations. As such, Lapid’s decision to declare his support for the two-state solution on the eve of Israel’s November 1st election gave his speech more of a domestic political flavor rather than signaling the beginning of a serious diplomatic move towards peace.

 

 

With the Israeli-Palestinian issue featuring more prominently in current election campaigns than previously, Lapid’s speech indicates a political calculus in which declaring support for a two-state solution is linked to mobilizing crucial electoral support at home – a strategy which analysts say appears to have paid off:

“Following Lapid’s speech, polls show that a higher proportion of the electorate view him as suitable for the premiership. He is also up in mandates for the first time in several weeks. The jump is significant and is attributed primarily to undecided and unsure voters who either previously felt that no candidate was suitable or said they don’t know,” explains Adi Geva of Israel’s leading research and polling firm Mitgam.

“The shifts in Lapid’s approval we saw after last month’s Operation Breaking Dawn were not as significant as the jump we are seeing now. It is clear that something in the speech moved Israeli voters – in particular those who may have been hesitant, unsure, or undecided,” Geva notes.

Other parties and politicians are also signaling that the Palestinian issue is important to their platform and voting base, and candidates are expressing their positions more publicly and forcefully than in previous elections.

 

 

Defense Minister Benny Gantz, who spoke with Abbas by phone this month and has met the Palestinian leader several times over the past year, also detailed his positions on Israeli-Palestinian issues in a lengthy interview entitled “Israel Must Stretch Out Its Hand For Peace With the Palestinians” which was carried on the front page of Israel’s Yediot Aharonot newspaper – the largest Israeli daily in circulation.

Political newcomer and former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot this month characterized himself an “expert” on Israeli-Palestinian issues as he warned against unlimited settlement expansion and continued occupation over millions of Palestinians as a threat to Israel’s Jewish democratic nature. 

Labor chief and Transportation Minister Merav Michaeli also spoke specifically on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict this month as she launched her party’s campaign, taking aim at centrist rivals who have tread more cautiously on the issue by stating that she wants the next government to “renew political discourse and stop hiding behind empty words like ‘managing the conflict’ or ‘reducing the conflict'.”

With the West Bank currently on the brink of eruption, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is creeping ever closer into the daily lives of Israeli voters and is undoubtedly influencing how politicians frame political discourse as they jockey for votes in what is sure to be yet another tight race.

The TSI’s Israeli Public Discourse parameter rises from 7 to 8 this month, with a boost in public discussion amid election campaigning. The Palestinian Public Discourse parameter also rises this month from 5 to 6. At the same time, the Official Israeli-Palestinian Engagement parameter falls from 6 to 5, reflecting a missed opportunity for more significant engagement between Lapid and Abbas this month both at the UN and in Abbas’ holiday phone calls to Israeli leaders.

 

 

A Recipe for Disaster: West Bank on Brink Amid PA Power Vacuum, Mounting Resistance to Israeli Crackdown

Deadly clashes between armed resistance factions and both Israeli and Palestinian security forces this month underscored an increasing volatility across the West Bank, with concern that further deterioration could spark a new intifada or drive Israel into a limited military operation as the Palestinian Authority struggles to maintain control over major cities like Hebron, Jenin, and Nablus.

Clashes between Palestinians and Palestinian Authority security forces in Nablus following the arrest of Hamas operatives wanted by Israel this month marked a significant development that underscored conflicting pressures in the West Bank arena: 

On the one hand, the PA does not want to be seen as an instrument of the Israeli military, which has carried out increasingly brazen, large-scale operations in militant strongholds. At least 19 Palestinians were killed in confrontations between armed Palestinian factions and Israeli security forces this month alone, more than double the number of casualties recorded in August. Over 100 Palestinians have been killed since the beginning of the year, the deadliest year for West Bank Palestinians on record since 2015.

On the other hand, the PA has come under significant pressure by Israel and global actors to clamp down on growing pockets of Hamas and PIJ influence in its territory, amid concern that the PA’s eroding legitimacy could further embolden Hamas and lead it to attempt to seize power in the West Bank in the future, as it did successfully in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

 

 

Despite dire rhetoric warning of the collapse of the PA, however, Palestinian analysts say such a scenario is still highly unlikely. Developments in both Nablus and Jenin this month showed that bolstering the PA isn’t merely in the interest of Israel, but is also in the interest of the Palestinian people, who want a functioning government capable of tending to their civil and economic affairs.

“The clashes that unfolded this month in Nablus reflect widespread desperation in the Palestinian street. Resentment towards the Palestinian Authority is certainly palpable but won’t get to a degree of a mass uprising that could lead to the collapse of the PA. Israel, the region, and the wider global community won’t allow the PA to collapse, and Palestinians know they have no alternative to PA rule in the West Bank,” writer Jihad Harb says.

“Recent developments are shaking the ground under the Palestinian Authority but are still unlikely to lead to its total collapse,” says analyst Mohammed Younis. “The PA will continue to live by the life-lines extended to it by Israel and other regional and international powers, but that won’t do much more than keep it breathing while the Palestinian street heads in a different direction.” 

The TSI’s Palestinian Attacks (West Bank) parameter jumps from 5 to 7 this month while the IDF Actions (West Bank) parameter remains at 8, reflecting heightened volatility in the West Bank arena. The Security Coordination parameter remains stable at 8. The Integrity of Palestinian Governance parameter also drops this month from 3 to 2 while the Ties Between West Bank and Gaza parameter rises from 3 to 4 reflecting the degradation of PA legitimacy and increasing Hamas influence in the West Bank.

 

 

After Lapid’s UN Speech, Israeli and Palestinian Public Opinion Mixed on Two-State Solution

New polls assessing support for the two-state solution show that only a minority of Israelis think the next government should not try to advance a ‘two-state’ solution to resolve the Palestinian conflict, while among Palestinians support for the two-state solution has risen.

A poll published by the Israeli Democracy Institute (IDI) one month ahead of elections indicates that only 36% of Israelis do not think that the next government should try to advance a two-state solution to resolve the Palestinian conflict. This is down from 50% in February 2021, indicating a general increase in support for the two-state solution in Israeli society. 

There is high disparity, however, between Jewish Israelis and Arab Israelis on the matter, and the most recent poll shows that only 31 percent of Jewish Israelis think that a government formed after the November 1 elections should try to advance a two-state solution, down from 44 percent in February 2021.

At the same time, the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip showed a rise in support for the two-state solution from 28% to 37% over the past three months. However, only 32% of Palestinians believe that the two-state solution remains practical in light of Israeli settlement expansion. According to the poll, 43% of Palestinians would support negotiations with Lapid about a peace agreement.

Experts note that the results of public opinion polls – especially in Israel – are influenced significantly by the specific wording of survey questions, with support for the two-state solution trending higher among Israelis when framed more generally or from the perspective of “internal security” versus when framed in terms of support for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

The TSI’s Palestinian Public Opinion parameter and Israeli Public Opinion parameter both rise from 5 to 6 this month. 

 

 

 

Other Developments

 

 

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.

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