TSI: Election Special Edition
Dear Friends,

In one week, Israelis will return to the ballot box for the fifth time in less than four years. With inconclusive and shifting polls, the results of the upcoming elections are still uncertain. 

Over the latest campaign season, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has taken a more prominent place in the political agenda than in preceding election cycles. This is, among other reasons, due to PM Yair Lapid's United Nations speech emphasizing support for the two-state solution, as well as daily instances of violence on the ground. The ongoing escalation is a harsh reminder that the conflict cannot be ignored. 

Analysts estimate that election results will be shaped by three decisive factors: 
1) voter turnout among traditional Likud voters who, despite their party allegiance, don’t support party leader Benjamin Netanyahu, 
2) which political parties pass the electoral threshold, and 
3) voter turnout among Arab citizens of Israel. 

At the Geneva Initiative, we have been working with leading opinion-shapers and researchers in Arab society on issues relating to the conflict and the peace process. A researcher we have partnered with, Dr. Hisham Jubran of the "Afkar" Institute for Research and Public Opinion Polls, estimated today that Arab voter turnout on November 1st will be around 50%, showing an upward trend in projections: "Voter turnout in Arab society is on the rise. It was 44% ten days before the elections.” Turnout was 45% in the previous March 2021 elections, significantly less than the March 2020 election turnout (65%).  Dr. Jubran adds that if Arab voter turnout next Tuesday is 45% or less, there is a high likelihood that one of the Arab political parties will not pass the electoral threshold.  

In this special edition, we strip the elections down to the issue that matters most for the future of Israelis and Palestinians alike: Head of party positions on the two-state solution and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  



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