TSI: Election Special Edition
Dear Friends,

In one week, Israelis will return to the ballot box for the fifth time in less than four years. With inconclusive and shifting polls, the results of the upcoming elections are still uncertain. 

Over the latest campaign season, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has taken a more prominent place in the political agenda than in preceding election cycles. This is, among other reasons, due to PM Yair Lapid's United Nations speech emphasizing support for the two-state solution, as well as daily instances of violence on the ground. The ongoing escalation is a harsh reminder that the conflict cannot be ignored. 

Analysts estimate that election results will be shaped by three decisive factors: 
1) voter turnout among traditional Likud voters who, despite their party allegiance, don’t support party leader Benjamin Netanyahu, 
2) which political parties pass the electoral threshold, and 
3) voter turnout among Arab citizens of Israel. 

At the Geneva Initiative, we have been working with leading opinion-shapers and researchers in Arab society on issues relating to the conflict and the peace process. A researcher we have partnered with, Dr. Hisham Jubran of the "Afkar" Institute for Research and Public Opinion Polls, estimated today that Arab voter turnout on November 1st will be around 50%, showing an upward trend in projections: "Voter turnout in Arab society is on the rise. It was 44% ten days before the elections.” Turnout was 45% in the previous March 2021 elections, significantly less than the March 2020 election turnout (65%).  Dr. Jubran adds that if Arab voter turnout next Tuesday is 45% or less, there is a high likelihood that one of the Arab political parties will not pass the electoral threshold.  

In this special edition, we strip the elections down to the issue that matters most for the future of Israelis and Palestinians alike: Head of party positions on the two-state solution and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  


 

 

Two-State Solution Round-Up:


Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid):

“An agreement with the Palestinians, based on two states for two peoples, is the right thing for Israel's security, for Israel's economy and for the future of our children. Peace is not a compromise. It is the most courageous decision we can make.” 

Current PM Yair Lapid has repeatedly declared his support for a two-state solution. He explains lack of action to promote this vision on prevailing political circumstances in the coalition government. 

 

 

Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud):

“The Palestinians can have all the powers to govern themselves, but none to threaten us, which means we maintain security control. We don’t uproot anyone. We don’t divide Jerusalem.”

The head of the largest opposition party in Israel has adopted different positions over the years. In his well-known “Bar Ilan Speech” in 2009, Netanyahu declared his support for a two-state solution. In more recent years, he has taken various positions, from indicating his opposition to the two-state solution to supporting a Palestinian state as defined in the 2020 “Deal of the Century” plan. Consistent positions in recent years include not allowing a Palestinian capital in Jerusalem and not evacuating any settlers in a future peace agreement.  

 

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Benny Gantz (The State Camp):

“In the future, the Palestinians will have an entity, but not a state in the full sense of the word. In the end, we will find ourselves in a situation of a two-entity solution, within which we will respect the sovereignty and governance of the Palestinians and they will respect our security needs. "

Despite going on record in support of a two-state solution in the past, Gantz’s recent years in politics have resulted in a shift in his public position. He currently promotes policies of “shrinking the conflict,” improving quality of life and the humanitarian situation for Palestinians on an issue-specific basis (e.g. increasing the number of work permits into Israel) without addressing a comprehensive peace agreement. The party includes Gideon Saar, whose proposed solution to the conflict is an autonomous Palestinian entity (not a state) linked together in a federation with Jordan, and Gadi Eizenkot, who has expressed strong support for a two-state solution in the past. 

 

 

Betzalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism):

“There is no room in the land of Israel for two national ambitions. There’s only one, and it belongs to the Jewish nation. What exactly would be his [Palestinian resident’s] status? It doesn’t mean they would get the right to vote. But he would get a lot of things that they can’t get in the Arab states around us.”

Smotrich opposes any form of a two-state solution. He advocates de jure annexation of the entirety of the West Bank without extending the right to vote to Palestinian residents. The party is currently merged with Otzma Yehudit/Jewish Power, which also advocates for forced deportation of Arab residents “disloyal” to the State of Israel.

 

 



Merav Michaeli (Labour): 

"There is no other solution except an agreement between Israel and a future Palestine, two states that will live together in peace, side by side."

Michaeli’s position in support of a two-state solution is clear and has not changed. That said, peace, negotiations, and other policy issues related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were not at the top of her parliamentary agenda or public discourse during the last Knesset. MK Emilie Moatti (#6 on the party list and a Geneva Initiative course graduate) is also an outspoken advocate for negotiations and a two-state solution. 

 

 

Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beiteinu):

"A two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict must include exchanges of people and land to ensure the two sides are completely separated.”

While Lieberman has publicly declared support for a two-state solution, his vision includes a population swap in addition to a land swap, which means that the citizens of Arab towns close to the Green Line (in particular, the Triangle area up north) would have their Israeli citizenship revoked.

 

 

Zehava Galon (Meretz):

“Jerusalem will be the capital of two states.”
“If we want a two-state solution, we must do it through the fight for equality. I’m not suggesting a different solution. I’m suggesting a different way of fighting for it.” 

Galon is a supporter of the two-state solution and outspoken on the topic of restarting negotiations with Palestinian leadership and ending the occupation. Number two on the Meretz party list, MK Mossi Raz, is also known for prioritizing activism and discourse on this issue. 

 

 

Aryeh Deri (Shas):

“I do not agree to the partition of Jerusalem, and I do not agree to mass evacuations for no reason, but I do support the evacuation of isolated settlements, and I do support negotiations.”

The ultra-Orthodox Shas party has long been considered an ally of the Israeli right, without sharing the uncompromising ideological position against a two-state solution of the more extreme right-wing parties: he has expressed support for negotiations with Palestinian leadership. In recent years, however, many Shas voters (particularly youth) have adopted a more rigid position in support of the ideological settler movement and against territorial compromise.   

 

 

Moshe Gafni (United Torah Judaism):

“I am for making progress in the diplomatic process, rather than leaving the situation the way it is, with nothing.” 

Like Shas, the United Torah Judaism party has for many years aligned with the ideological right on the basis of greater cultural affiliation and religious interests unrelated to peace and the status of land in the West Bank. UTJ leaders (including the newest head of the combined party list, Yitzhak Goldknopf) tend not to discuss this issue, but most affiliated members of Knesset and party voters are against a two-state solution. 

 

 

Mansour Abbas (Raam):

“I was elected to first serve the Arab citizens and to try to bring solutions to the problems. That’s numbers one, two, and three in priorities. But if I have the opportunity to advance the peace I will do so.”

The head of the Raam party, the first Arab party to join a ruling government coalition in Israel, openly supports the two-state solution but has focused primarily on local issues relevant to Arab citizens of Israel. 

 

 

Ayman Odeh (Hadash/Taal):

“The effect of talking about one state at the moment is only legitimizing the settlements. At the moment, we don’t have any means of building one democratic state. I think the Palestinian people have struggled for many years. This is not the moment to discard the two-state solution.”

Odeh supports the two-state solution. 

 

 

Sami Abu Shahadeh (Balad):

“I believe in a two-state solution, a state of all citizens with full equality next to a State of Palestine.”

The Balad party emphasizes Palestinian nationalism and equality for all citizens within Israel; Shahadeh opposes the continuation of a Jewish state as such. 

 

 

The Two-StateIndex (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.


 

 

 

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