Annexing Violence
Dear Friends,

As violence on the ground escalates and Israel’s unbridled settlement expansion opens new centers of friction across the West Bank, the international community has been strident in its calls for both sides to take steps to calm tensions before reaching a point of no return. But as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hands his far-right coalition members a carte blanche to steamroll ahead with de facto West Bank annexation, diplomatic rhetoric must be coupled with concrete action to safeguard the viability of the two-state solution.

The Two State Index drops -1.2% from 5.03 to 4.97 this month. Scroll through the headlines below for in-depth analysis on how developments this month impacted the feasibility of the two-state solution.

 

 

June at a Glance:


  • As Netanyahu Hands Far-Right Carte Blanche for West Bank Annexation, Saudi Normalization May Be Last Leverageable Incentive to Salvage a Diplomatic Horizon for Peace

  • Response to Israeli Settler Attacks Highlights Dangerous Daylight Between Israeli Government and Security Establishment

  • Intensification of Israeli Raid in Jenin Further Undercuts Palestinian Authority’s Eroding Legitimacy, Changing Equation in West Bank Power Dynamics

  • Israel Gives Preliminary Approval to Gaza Off-Short Gas Development

  • Palestinian Support for Two State Solution Stagnant, Expectations of a ‘Third Intifada’ Fall Despite Recent Events


These events decreased the Two State Index by -1.2% in June (down 0.06 points from 5.03 to 4.97)


 

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As Netanyahu Hands Far-Right Carte Blanche for West Bank Annexation, Saudi Normalization May Be Last Leverageable Incentive to Salvage a Diplomatic Horizon for Peace

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government rapidly accelerated settlement expansion plans and advanced procedural measures that will expedite the de facto annexation of the West Bank, flying in the face of international criticism and efforts by the US and others to wield diplomatic pressure to limit unilateral Israeli moves that threaten the two-state solution.

A resolution passed by the government handed Minister Bezalel Smotrich, an ultranationalist advocate of settlements, almost full control over planning approval for construction in West Bank settlements by reducing the number of authorizations needed from the Prime Minister for approval of land use designations from five to just two at the beginning and end of the process – with all stations along the way falling under Smotrich’s authority. Days after the resolution passed, plans for 5,733 new housing units were approved, including 818 units approved for final validation and 4,915 units approved for deposit. 

As Netanyahu hands his far-right coalition members a carte blanche to steamroll ahead with de facto West Bank annexation, it is clear that settlement expansion is taking precedence over Israel’s diplomatic relations:  “As long as this current Israeli government is in power, we can’t really speak of changes beyond the international arena. It is only Saudi Arabia and the US right now which have the potential to either raise or lower the mark on the two-state solution in a meaningful way,” says former Justice Minister and Geneva Initiative Chairman Yossi Beilin. 


But even the expectation that a Saudi normalization agreement will necessarily be accompanied by a commitment to the two-state solution appears to be softening. “The understanding is that the sides are not talking about a permanent understanding or a two-state solution – maybe only in lip service. In reality, they are talking about the settlements and other issues, including the maintenance of the Status Quo in Jerusalem which appears to be the true bottom-line issue for Riyadh. If the Saudis give up on efforts to implement the 2002 Arab Initiative and give up on a permanent solution as a prerequisite for normalizing relations with Israel, it will take the two-state solution further off the agenda,” Beilin says.

The moves also fly in the face of US efforts to organize a third gathering of Israeli, Palestinian, Egyptian, and Jordanian officials following summits in Aqaba and Sharm al-Sheikh, during which Israel specifically agreed to hold off on advancing plans for new settlement homes for four months and also angered Abraham Accords partners including the UAE and Morocco, which cancelled plans to host a second ministerial gathering of the Negev Forum next month in response to the moves. 

“The government’s recent moves emphasize a ‘settlements first’ attitude – in which key regional interests are pushed aside to accommodate right-wing political needs. This prioritization leads to a change of attitude among Israel’s regional partners and their willingness to critically engage with the Palestinian issue. The events of last month demonstrate that the current Israeli government does not have a strategic policy, it has a settlement policy,” says Dr. Gil Murciano, CEO of Mitvim.


With the most recent settlement approvals, 2023 has emerged as the highest year on record in terms of settlement units approved – with a total of 13,082 settlement units green-lit in just the first six months of the year. The previous annual record was the approval of 12,159 units in 2020 during the presidency of Donald Trump. Only 4,427 housing units were advanced in all of 2022.

The TSI’s reverse-scale “Israeli law in the West Bank parameter” rises from 7 to 7.5 this month. The reverse-scale “Settlement Planning” and “Settlement Construction” parameters both drop from 2 to 1.5 respectively, while the “Expropriation of private Palestinian lands or legalization of settlements” parameter falls from 3.5 to 2.5 after illegal outposts failed to be evacuated this month. The “Israeli-Palestinian bilateral negotiations” and “Official Israeli-Palestinian Engagement” parameters fall to 1.5 and 2.5 respectively, in light of a lack of progress following summits in Aqaba and Sharm El-Sheikh. There are no changes to “International Actors” parameters, which all remain at 7/10.

 

 

Response to Israeli Settler Attacks Highlights Dangerous Daylight Between Israeli Government and Security Establishment

A string of violent settler attacks across the West Bank this month highlighted dangerous discord between Israel’s political and security echelons that is liable to further empower settler-perpetrators and provoke further clashes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians across the West Bank.

Mobs of Israeli settlers embarked on dozens of violent raids in villages in the Ramallah and Nablus regions following the fatal shooting of four Israelis in the settlement of Eli (an attack which came in response to an Israeli military raid in Jenin one day earlier). Hundreds of settlers pillaged Palestinian villages including Turmus Aya, Umm Safa, and others, torching cars and homes, desecrating mosques, and attacking Palestinians – in some cases firing live ammunition during the hours-long assaults. At least one Palestinian was killed during the rampage in Turmus Aya, during which IDF forces failed to stop the settler mob. 


The events sparked an outpouring of criticism of the Israeli military’s feeble response to the rapidly rising rate and intensity of settler attacks, including by the US, which said in a statement that it expected the Israeli government “to ensure full accountability” for those responsible. But the US response reflects exasperation, and a stronger hand is needed if Washington expects to have any impact on the current Israeli government.

“The US is currently the only force in the world today which has any influence on the Israeli government. But there is no question that Washington is much less present in the Middle East than previously. Washington must know that if they are saying something, even the current Israeli government cannot ignore them. Only the Americans are not ignorable – that is a new kind of responsibility for the US,” says former Justice Minister and Geneva Initiative Chairman Yossi Beilin. 

Washington is aware, however, that beyond safeguarding Palestinians’ property and physical safety there can be little other outcome expected on this issue given the composition of the current Israeli government. “Efforts to address settler violence are of course important – but it is not an issue that will either raise or lower the prospects of two-state solution. There are no expectations whatsoever of the current government in this regard and so the link between the increase in settler violence and the prospect of a two-state solution is superficial at best,” Beilin says.

Still, the sharp rise in settler violence has an undeniable impact on the prospect for a full-scale, multi-front conflict that could tip the scale in either direction – requiring Israel to eventually evacuate certain areas of the West Bank (as was the case in Lebanon and Gaza) or leading to other major developments that would put in place unprecedented setbacks for the two-state solution.


Meanwhile, the internal Israeli response to these events highlights a destabilizing disunity between the government and the security establishment that simultaneously empowers settlers to continue such attacks while intimidating and deterring Israeli soldiers from intervening. After condemning the recent attacks as a form of Jewish “nationalist terrorism”, the IDF and Shin Bet came under harsh attack by pro-settlement government ministers, and PM Netanyahu ordered an investigation into accusations that excessive force was against settlers during the IDF’s response to the rampages – sending a signal of support to the settlers who prop up his current administration and to top military brass about the limits of their response.

“The increase in recent settler violence is directly connected to the incitement of ministers and other Israeli government members who identify with the settlement movement, and who are providing clear backing for their actions by threatening senior officials of the Israeli security establishment. The Israeli government's statements condemning the settler violence are nothing more than lip service,” says former deputy national security adviser Brigadier General (res.) Israela Oron.

Israeli soldiers (both uniformed and those on furlough) have been implicated in recent incidents of vandalism and violence in Palestinian villages, underscoring the trickle-down-effect of far-right pro-settler government ministers’ rhetoric within the ranks of the military and the challenges Israel faces in tackling this phenomenon.

The TSI’s “Settler Violence” parameter jumps from 7.5 to 8.5 this month in response to settler attacks across the West Bank, and the “Israeli Public Discourse” parameter falls from 6 to 5.

 

 

Intensification of Israeli Raid in Jenin Further Undercuts Palestinian Authority’s Eroding Legitimacy, Changing Equation in West Bank Power Dynamics

A major Israeli military raid in Jenin this month underscored escalating security concerns in the West Bank, with Israeli politicians calling increasingly for the launch of a large-scale military operation as the sophistication of local Palestinian resistance more and more resembles the capabilities of armed groups in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. 

After entering Jenin on an arrest operation, Israeli forces were met with a strong response by local armed militias. The tactics used by both sides indicated a major escalation – the IDF confirmed that an Apache helicopter gunship was deployed to support the evacuation of troops who were hit by an “unusual and dramatic” IED fired by Palestinian fighters. The incident marked the first combat helicopter attack in the West Bank since 2002, during the Second Intifada. Israel also confirmed launching a rare drone strike near Jenin targeting Islamic Jihad and Fatah militants, in the first targeted Israeli strike in the West Bank since the end of the Second Intifada in 2006.


Though such raids have been ongoing since at least March last year, the increasing sophistication and organization of armed militias in major West Bank cities has increasingly resembled the tactics and capabilities of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Two incidents of rocket fire originating from Jenin this month threatened to open a new front for Israel’s rocket defense, which is currently deployed to defend against rockets from Lebanon or Gaza but not the West Bank. 

“The weakening position of the Palestinian Authority and the strengthening of Hamas, especially in the northern West Bank, together with recent moves of the current Israeli government has caused serious instability and the creation of new centers of friction,” says former deputy national security adviser Brigadier General (res.) Israela Oron.

Amid the escalation, hardline Israeli politicians have increasingly called for the launch of a full-scale military operation in the West Bank. The situation presents a quagmire for both Israel and the PA. As Israeli military operations penetrate deeper into PA territory, they undermine the legitimacy of the PA and its security forces inspiring broader support for armed resistance, while simultaneously lowering the incentive of the PA to crack down on such activities. 


PM Netanyahu reportedly acknowledged this month that Israel “needs the Palestinian Authority”and “has an interest in seeing that the PA continues to function” – referring to counter-terrorism operations in Area A – while also saying that Israel needs to crush Palestinian ambition for statehood.

“Netanyahu’s statements concerning eliminating the Palestinians’ aspirations for a State of Palestine comes in the context of rapid annexation and puts the Palestinians in the position of questioning the relevance of the Palestinian Authority, which was established as an interim body to lead a diplomatic peace process meant to result in a two-state solution. But the PA has made little to no progress on the diplomatic front and its legitimacy is waning quickly,” says Palestinian analyst Mohammed Daraghmeh.

US officials this month expressed concern to Israeli counterparts during meetings in both Israel and Washington that a violent escalation is on the horizon, with the White House particularly concerned about the deteriorating standing of the Palestinian Authority and the power vacuum being left in its wake.

The TSI’s reverse-scale Palestinian attacks (West Bank) and IDF Military actions (West Bank) both rise from 7 to 8 respectively this month in response to a steep escalation in tactics. 

 

 

Other Developments:

  • Israel Gives Preliminary Approval to Gaza Off-Short Gas Development: Israel gave preliminary approval for the development of a gas field off the shores of the Gaza Strip this month, contingent on agreements pertaining to security coordination with both the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. The Gaza marine field, situated approximately 30 km (20 miles) off the Gaza coast, is estimated to hold over 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas – a quantity sufficient to provide reliable power for both the Gaza Strip and West Bank as well as provide a potential export resource that would give a significant economic boost to the cash-strapped Palestinian Authority. Israel has sought, in lieu of any diplomatic progress in recent years, to advance economic measures to stabilize the PA and incentivize Hamas to maintain relative calm in the Gaza Strip. No changes to relevant TSI parameters are recorded.

  • Palestinian Support for Two State Solution Stagnant, Expectations of a ‘Third Intifada’ Fall Despite Recent Events: The latest public opinion poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) shows stagnation in support for the two-state solution and strong correlation between support for the concept and the perception of its feasibility. Backing for the two-state solution among Palestinians stands at 28% (+1% compared to three months ago), while opposition stands at 70%. Most Palestinians (71%) maintain that the two-state solution is no longer practical or feasible due to the expansion of Israeli settlements, while 28% maintain that it is still a viable solution. There is almost equal support among Palestinians for a diplomatic approach to breaking the current deadlock which involves joining more international organizations (56%) and a return to armed confrontations and intifada (53%). The poll shows significant support for the formation of armed resistance groups in the West Bank (71%), with most Palestinians (51%) expecting such groups to expand outside of current hotbeds in Jenin and Nablus to other parts of the West Bank. An equal proportion expect the current escalation of tensions in the West Bank to lead to the eruption of a third intifada, though this marks a nearly 10% fall from three months ago. No changes to relevant TSI parameters are recorded.

 

 

The Two-State Index (TSI) is part of the Two-State Coalition (TSC) that is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is part of the Two-State Coalition project, produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.

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